固收、宏观周报：A股投资者风险偏好有望保持高位-20250714

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - In the past week (20250707 - 20250713), US stocks declined, while the Nasdaq China Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index rose. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -0.08%, -0.31%, and -1.02% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 1.83%; the Hang Seng Index changed by 0.93% [2]. - A - shares generally rose, with both growth and blue - chip stocks increasing. The wind All - A Index rose 1.71%. Different indices such as the CSI A100, CSI 300, etc., had varying degrees of increase. In terms of sector styles, both blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, and the North Securities 50 Index changed by 0.41% [3]. - Most industries rose, with Hong Kong brokers, rare earths, real estate, and photovoltaic leading the gains. Among 30 CITIC industries, only 3 declined and 27 rose. The leading industries were comprehensive finance and real estate with a weekly increase of over 6%. ETFs related to Hong Kong securities, rare earths, etc., also had a weekly increase of over 6% [4]. Group 2: Bond Market Conditions - In the past week (20250707 - 20250713), the price of interest - rate bonds fell, and the yield curve flattened. The 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.25% compared to July 4, 2025, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond increased by 2.20 BP to 1.6653% [5]. - The capital price increased slightly, and the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal. As of July 11, 2025, R007 was 1.5086%, up 2.05 BP from July 4, 2025, and DR007 was 1.4718%, up 4.96 BP. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan in the past week [6]. - The bond - market leverage level increased. The current 7 - day capital cost is lower than the 5 - year treasury bond yield. The bank - to - bank pledged repurchase trading volume (5 - day average) increased from 7.60 trillion yuan on July 4, 2025, to 8.21 trillion yuan on July 11, 2025 [7]. - US bond yields increased, and the curve became steeper. As of July 11, 2025, the 10 - year US bond yield increased by 8 BP to 4.43% compared to July 4, 2025. Except for the 6 - month maturity variety, other maturity yields increased, with long - term yields rising more [8][9]. Group 3: Currency and Commodity Markets - The US dollar appreciated, and the price of gold showed internal and external differentiation. In the past week (20250707 - 20250713), the US dollar index rose 0.91%. The US dollar appreciated against the euro, pound, and yen. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate increased. The external gold market rose, while the domestic gold price fell [10]. Group 4: Trade and Market Outlook - Trump's threat to impose tariffs on August 1 is considered a means to increase bargaining chips in trade negotiations. The final implementation or postponement of the tariff increase is uncertain. The US Commerce Secretary will meet with Chinese officials in early August to discuss trade issues [11]. - A - share investors' risk preference is expected to remain high. Trump's tariff threats do not involve China, which is beneficial for A - share investors' risk preference. The report continues to be optimistic about structural opportunities such as the second supply - side reform, rare earths, etc. In the bond market, interest - rate bond yields may continue to fluctuate narrowly at a low level, and gold in the commodity market may benefit from the uncertainty brought by tariff threats [12].