棉花周报：美棉种植面积超预期，郑棉关注产区天气炒作-20250714

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton prices fluctuated. The July USDA report on U.S. cotton was moderately bearish, causing U.S. cotton to fluctuate weakly. In China, the commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and imports are low. However, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand, making it difficult for cotton prices to improve. The Xinjiang new - season cotton is in the full - bloom stage, and the soil moisture is acceptable, with the recent high - temperature situation in the production area having eased. The strategy is that the USDA report suppresses U.S. cotton, while the rapid inventory reduction in China supports the futures market to fluctuate strongly. But weak downstream demand, increased new - season planting area, and the expected alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang will limit the increase of Zhengzhou cotton prices [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views - This week, cotton fluctuated. The July USDA report on U.S. cotton was moderately bearish, with increased planting area, decreased yield per unit, increased production, unchanged total consumption, and increased ending inventory. Globally, cotton production and ending inventory increased slightly. In China, supply and demand are both weak, with continuous consumption of commercial inventory and low imports. The new - season cotton in Xinjiang is in the full - bloom stage, and the high - temperature has eased. The USDA report suppresses U.S. cotton, while rapid inventory reduction in China supports the futures market, but weak downstream demand and other factors will limit the increase of Zhengzhou cotton prices [6]. 2. Market Review - As of the close on July 11, the ICE U.S. cotton 12 contract closed at 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 points from last week's close, a weekly decline of 1.48%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,885 yuan per ton, up 105 points from last week's close, a weekly increase of 0.76% [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Balance Sheet - U.S. Cotton - For the 2025/2026 season, the expected planting area is 10.12 million acres, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 acres; the expected harvested area is 8.66 million acres, a month - on - month increase of 470,000 acres; the expected yield per unit is 809 pounds per acre, a month - on - month decrease of 11 pounds per acre; the expected production is 14.6 million bales, a month - on - month increase of 600,000 bales; the expected total consumption is 14.2 million bales, unchanged from the previous month; the expected ending inventory is 4.6 million bales, a month - on - month increase of 300,000 bales [12][15]. External Cotton - U.S. Cotton Growth - As of the week of July 6, the U.S. cotton good - to - excellent rate was 52%, up from 51% the previous week and 45% in the same period last year; the boll - setting rate was 14%, up from 9% the previous week, compared with 18% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 15%; the squaring rate was 48%, up from 40% the previous week, compared with 51% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 49% [19]. External Cotton - U.S. Cotton Exports - As of the week of July 3, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton for the 2024/2025 season were 75,000 bales, compared with 24,000 bales the previous week; for the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 82,000 bales, compared with 107,000 bales the previous week [23]. Domestic - Spinning Mill Operation - As of July 10, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84%. The overall operation changed little. The sales of inland spinning mills were slightly worse than those in Xinjiang. Some small inland spinning mills stopped production to handle inventory, while Xinjiang spinning mills maintained stable operation. Inland spinning mills operated at 50% - 70% capacity, and Xinjiang mills at 80% - 90% [27]. Domestic - Spinning Mill Inventory - As of the week of July 10, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills was equivalent to 28.1 days of storage. As of July 10, the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.2 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%. Currently, downstream fabric mills operate at about 30% capacity, are not active in purchasing raw materials, and inventory is still accumulating. Large mills in Xinjiang have an inventory of 35 - 40 days, and inland enterprises have 20 - 28 days [31]. Domestic - Cotton Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.6063 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 141,300 tons (a decrease of 5.14%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 1.7978 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 115,000 tons (a decrease of 6.01%); the commercial cotton in inland areas was 428,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,300 tons (a decrease of 1.68%). As of July 10, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 4.76% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 380,300 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [34]. 4. Spread Tracking - Not elaborated in the content