Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-14 11:12Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand, with the previous optimistic sentiment on the disk gradually calming down and the market returning to the fundamental reality. The electrolytic aluminum market has a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand, and its upward space may be limited due to the off - season and trade uncertainties. The casting aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the cost support logic is relatively strong, and its upward space in the short term may be limited [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,415 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,145 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,602 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars. The closing price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract was 19,805 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 32,657 hands, and those of alumina decreased by 10,712 hands. The main contract positions of casting aluminum alloy decreased by 558 hands [2] - LME aluminum inventories increased by 4,550 tons to 400,275 tons, and Shanghai Aluminum's SHFE inventories increased by 8,565 tons to 103,197 tons. The total alumina inventory decreased by 5,347 tons to 59,664 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,470 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum was 20,760 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan [2] - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of casting aluminum alloy, electrolytic aluminum, and alumina all weakened [2] Upstream Situation - The alumina production in the current month was 748.80 million tons, an increase of 16.50 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 720.02 million tons, an increase of 26.32 million tons. The supply - demand balance of alumina was - 25.26 million tons, a decrease of 15.33 million tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,050 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; in Shandong metal scrap, it was 15,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2] - The export volume of alumina was 21.00 million tons, a decrease of 5.00 million tons; the import volume was 6.75 million tons, an increase of 5.68 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 41.20 million tons, a decrease of 1.20 million tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,520.70 million tons, an increase of 0.50 million tons [2] - The primary aluminum import volume was 223,095.59 tons, a decrease of 27,381.21 tons; the export volume was 32,094.07 tons, an increase of 18,421.29 tons [2] - The aluminum product production was 576.20 million tons, a decrease of 0.20%; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 48.90 million tons, a decrease of 6.10 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.89 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons; the aluminum alloy production was 164.50 million tons, an increase of 11.70 million tons [2] - The automobile production was 264.20 million vehicles, an increase of 3.80 million vehicles. The National Housing Prosperity Index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 1.40% to 9.69%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.68% to 9.35%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased slightly [2] Industry News - The global trade pattern is at a critical turning point. The US tariff policy has promoted the global trade system to develop towards true diversification. The influence of the US is gradually weakening, and developing countries and emerging economies are becoming new growth points [2] - The proportion of new energy vehicles in China is expected to exceed 50% this year, and the sales volume is expected to reach 16 million [2] Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The domestic bauxite supply is sufficient, and the alumina supply is relatively abundant. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum is stable. The market is gradually returning to the fundamental reality. It is recommended to trade with a light position and control risks [2] Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable with a slight increase, the demand is weak due to the off - season, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to trade with a light position and control risks [2] Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint Summary - The supply and demand of casting aluminum alloy are both weak, but the cost support is strong. The market is in a game between cost support and weak fundamentals, and the upward space in the short term is limited. It is recommended to trade with a light position and control risks [2]