瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250714

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - EB2508 fluctuates strongly, closing at 7,478 yuan/ton. The styrene production last week decreased by 1.04% to 362,800 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.82% to 79.21%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS decreased by 3.9% to 234,100 tons. The factory inventory increased by 8.12% to 209,700 tons, the East China port inventory increased by 12.85% to 1.115 million tons, and the South China port inventory decreased by 40% to 9,000 tons [2]. - After the centralized restart of large - scale plants, the styrene operating rate has been at a high level. A 120,000 - ton plant in Central China is planned to restart this week, and some plants plan to reduce production. The supply is expected to remain at a high - yield state. In the off - season of terminal demand, downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The finished - product inventory of downstream "Three Ss" is high, the profits of EPS and PS are still low, and the profit of ABS is at a neutral level, with no improvement in demand. The total inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and inventory reduction is more difficult [2]. - In terms of cost, the overall global crude oil supply and demand is weak, but geopolitical uncertainties still disrupt short - term oil prices. The supply and demand of pure benzene is expected to remain loose, and the price lacks support. Overall, the styrene spot is under pressure due to weak supply and demand. For futures, since the basis of the 08 contract is still high, the price is expected to be stronger than the spot. Technically, the daily K - line of EB2508 should pay attention to the support near 7,360 and the pressure near 7,550 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active styrene contract is 7,478 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 62 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 6,256 lots, and the closing price of the September contract is 7,367 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 51 yuan/ton [2]. - The long - position volume of the top 20 holders is 238,912 lots, a decrease of 3,097 lots; the net long - position volume is - 13,527 lots, a decrease of 5,255 lots; the short - position volume is 404,540 lots, an increase of 11,511 lots; and the warehouse receipt quantity is 0 lots, a decrease of 7,245 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7,908 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB South Korea intermediate price is 915 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price is 925 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton [2]. - The mainstream market prices in South China, Northeast, North, and East China are 7,908 yuan/ton, 7,750 yuan/ton, 7,850 yuan/ton, and 7,725 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, + 25, and 0 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf are 821 US dollars/ton, 831 US dollars/ton, 804 US dollars/ton, and 457 US dollars/ton respectively, with changes of 0, + 0.5, 0, and - 6 US dollars/ton [2]. - The spot prices of pure benzene in Taiwan (CIF), Rotterdam (FOB), and the market prices in South China, East China, and North China are relevant, with the Rotterdam price at 762 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton; the South China price at 5,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the East China price at 5,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; and the North China price at 5,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate is 79.21%, a decrease of 0.82 percentage points; the national inventory is 209,695 tons, an increase of 15,745 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port is 111,500 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons; and the trade inventory in the East China main port is 39,000 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 51.06%, 65%, 51.1%, 29%, and 73.08% respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 4.82, - 0.04, - 1.3, 0, and - 0.58 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the overall production of Chinese styrene plants was 362,800 tons, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous period; the plant capacity utilization rate was 79.21%, a decrease of 0.82% from the previous period [2]. - From July 4th to 10th, the consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of Chinese styrene was 234,100 tons, a decrease of 3.9% from the previous period [2]. - As of July 10th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene plants was 209,700 tons, an increase of 8.12% from the previous period [2].