Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-14 11:19Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - International supply is expected to be loose, suppressing raw sugar prices, but short - term support exists due to Pakistan's import plan and reduced sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in late June [2]. - In China, there is a divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign markets. The opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports will release import pressure and suppress sugar prices. However, the summer consumption peak and the demand for food and beverage inventory replenishment provide some support for sugar prices [2]. - Recently, the domestic white sugar price fluctuates repeatedly following raw sugar, but shows stronger performance than the foreign market due to rising domestic demand. In the later period, with both supply and demand being strong, price fluctuations will intensify. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5817 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 327,581 hands, with a change of 17,613 hands [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 22,716, and the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0, a decrease of 106 [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 22,354 hands [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4539 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan [2]. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5769 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5905 yuan/ton, 6060 yuan/ton, and 6140 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons [2]. - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons; Brazil's monthly sugar export volume is 3.359 million tons, an increase of 1.1024 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1543 yuan/ton, an increase of 84 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1414 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 353 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 184 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for sugar is 7.55%, a decrease of 3.45 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.58%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.55%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's latest supply - demand report shows that the US sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - making season starting in October is 9.19 million short tons, a decrease of 59,000 short tons from last month's estimate due to the decline in beet sugar production. Sugar consumption is expected to be reduced by 165,000 short tons to 12.16 million short tons [2].