Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-14 11:18Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent supply and demand are both weak. Downstream buyers purchase as needed, leading to a slight increase in domestic social inventory, while overseas inventory remains stable. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low level of open interest. Attention should be paid to the pressure of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai Nickel is -120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,235 dollars/ton, down 50 dollars. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is 59,940 lots, down 1,587 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel is -14,145 lots, down 3,937 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 206,580 tons, up 402 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 25,047 tons (weekly), up 125 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 9,318 tons, up 768 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 21,296 tons, up 854 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,750 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 121,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 650 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is -202.24 dollars/ton, down 3.99 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, up 101.31 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 896.49 million tons (weekly), up 24.65 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 73.42 dollars/ton, down 5.44 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, up 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 84.82 million tons, up 3.13 million tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is down 3.96 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 62.44 million tons, up 1.85 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the latest tariff measures announced by US President Trump have muddied the inflation outlook again, making it more difficult for him to support the interest - rate cut policy strongly advocated by Trump. The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, and the effects of the implemented monetary policies will further emerge. In the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitor and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operations [3]