Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-14 11:18Report Overview - Report Date: July 14, 2025 - Report Name: Methanol Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall production of methanol has decreased slightly due to more capacity losses from maintenance and production cuts than capacity outputs from restarts. The port inventory of methanol may accumulate slightly as downstream demand remains weak. The olefin industry's overall start - up increased slightly last week, and the start - up rate may continue to rise slightly this week, but some MTO devices are expected to stop. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2430 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2396 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 67 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 655,519 lots, down 29,742 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 103,899 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,528, down 162 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1975 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 395 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 26 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 273 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 333 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 245 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 60 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.36 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.01 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 57.05 tons, up 6.1 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 14.84 tons, down 1.58 tons. The import profit of methanol is 2.98 yuan/ton, up 24.09 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 tons, up 50.46 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 356,900 tons, up 4,600 tons; the methanol enterprise start - up rate is 84.75%, down 3.43% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of formaldehyde is 45.24%, down 0.83%; the start - up rate of dimethyl ether is 5.19%, unchanged; the start - up rate of acetic acid is 93.91%, up 0.49%; the start - up rate of MTBE is 66.86%, up 1.8%; the start - up rate of olefins is 85.15%, up 0.55%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 921 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.87%, down 2.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.77%, down 0.24%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options of methanol is 16.05%, up 0.38% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.69 tons, up 0.46 tons, a 1.31% increase; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 22.12 tons, down 2.00 tons, an 8.29% decrease. The total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 71.89 tons, up 4.52 tons. The inventory in East China increased by 6.1 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 1.58 tons. As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.94%, a 0.55% increase [2].