瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The tariff situation has heated up again, the market risk appetite has declined, and short - term market hedging demand has increased, causing the gold price to break through an important level [2]. - The jump in the implied annualized lease rate of London spot silver indicates a surge in investment demand leading to tight inventories, providing strong support for the silver price, which may continue to rise in the short term [2]. - Gold prices may still be driven by three factors: the Fed's dovish policy expectation suppressing real interest rates, the risk of US fiscal deficit monetization pushing up sovereign credit premiums, and geopolitical uncertainty maintaining hedging demand [2]. - The long - term supply - demand tightness of silver provides price support. However, due to the large uncertainty in inflation prospects and the swing of rate - cut expectations, and the silver price being at a high level since 2012, it may face some short - term correction risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.4 yuan/gram, up 7.84 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9207 yuan/kilogram, up 167 yuan [2]. - The position of the Shanghai gold main contract is 191,083 lots, up 9,151 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract is 448,095 lots, up 45,139 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract is 133,792 lots, up 2,823 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract is 147,543 lots, up 16,243 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,857 kilograms, up 4,272 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,223,982 kilograms, down 79,611 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 774.2 yuan/gram, up 3.5 yuan; the spot price of silver on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 9168 yuan/kilogram, up 182 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 7.2 yuan/gram, down 4.34 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 39 yuan/kilogram, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF position is 947.64 tons, down 1.16 tons; the silver ETF position is 14,758.52 tons, down 131.41 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 202,968 contracts, up 988 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 58,521 contracts, down 4,879 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.62%, up 0.73%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.69%, down 0.36% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump has imposed tariffs on 25 trading partners in four batches from July 7 to July 12, with tax rates ranging from 20% to 50% [2]. - The 35% tariff on Canada does not apply to goods meeting the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, and Canada will not double its retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminum as originally planned [2]. - Trump has criticized Fed Chairman Powell multiple times this year for not announcing rate cuts, and the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 93.3% [2].