瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250714

1. Core Views - For rapeseed meal, the current stage of Canadian rapeseed growth is "weather - dominated". The reduction of hot weather and beneficial rainfall in the Canadian plains this week bring pressure. Domestically, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, the oil - mill operating rate is at a high level, and the short - term supply is loose, suppressing the price of the rapeseed meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. The peak season of aquaculture boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is waiting for news on Sino - US trade negotiations. Recently, rapeseed meal has risen and may remain volatile in the short term [2]. - For rapeseed oil, although the production of Malaysian palm oil declines against the seasonal pattern, the unexpected drop in export data makes the MPOB report bearish. High - frequency data shows that the export improvement from July 1 - 10 provides some support, and the rebound of international oil prices also supports the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, which restricts the market price. However, the decline in the oil - mill operating rate reduces the output pressure. The uncertainty of third - quarter rapeseed purchases and the potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future rapeseed exports to China. Affected by the weakening of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed oil has declined in a volatile manner and may continue to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Futures Market - Prices: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9424 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the futures closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2659 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 683 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.9 Canadian dollars; the futures closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5099 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - Spreads and Positions: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 81 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 355 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 16649 lots, up 1298 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are 4915 lots, up 6885 lots. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 256301 lots, and for rapeseed meal are 560897 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3510 sheets, and for rapeseed meal is 12466 sheets [2]. 2.2 Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2550 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9650 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 4893.66 yuan/ton, down 30.48 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Spreads and Basis: The oil - meal ratio is 3.69, down 0.02; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 171 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 109 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1400 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 810 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 2.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Imports: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and Operating Rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 200 thousand tons, up 50 thousand tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 9.86%, down 2.67 percentage points. The imported rapeseed crushing profit is 304 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. 2.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 92.9 thousand tons, down 7.2 thousand tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 15.1 thousand tons, up 10.5 thousand tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 592.7 thousand tons, down 6.8 thousand tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 355.8 thousand tons, down 13.2 thousand tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 69 thousand tons, down 3 thousand tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 293 thousand tons, down 8 thousand tons [2]. - Delivery Volume: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 21.1 thousand tons, down 8.9 thousand tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 23.2 thousand tons, down 11.6 thousand tons [2]. 2.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly output of feed is 27.621 million tons, up 981 thousand tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 457.82 billion yuan, up 41.12 billion yuan [2]. 2.6 Option Market - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.17%, up 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.02%, up 0.56 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.45%, down 0.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.48%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 0.49%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.82%, down 2.17 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.19%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. 2.7 Industry News - On July 11th, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to the improved weather conditions in the Canadian plains. The most actively traded November rapeseed contract closed down 2.40 Canadian dollars at 682.70 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 2.50 Canadian dollars to 691.10 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year. The current weather in US soybean - producing areas is good, and the good - to - excellent rate is relatively high. The US tariff issue may damage the downstream demand for US soybeans and restrict the market price [2]. 2.8 Key Points of Concern - Monitor the rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions released by myagric on Monday, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].