Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-14 11:32Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The raw - material cost support for stainless steel has weakened due to the increase in Indonesian nickel - iron production despite the higher supply cost caused by the PNBP policy. Steel mills are facing greater cost - inversion pressure and are increasing production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may alleviate the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further. In the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty and export demand pressure. Downstream industries are cautious and pessimistic. The domestic inventory de - stocking is poor, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking effect of subsequent production cuts. Technically, there is a reduction in positions and a divergence between long and short positions. It is expected to have short - term volatile adjustments, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,715 yuan/ton, with a change of 5. The 08 - 09 contract spread is - 15 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,072 lots, a decrease of 540. The main - contract position is 66,494 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 111,051 tons, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The SS main - contract basis is 205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron production is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, an increase of 18,500 tons. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, a decrease of 200 units. - The monthly output of medium - and large - sized tractors is 10,400 units, and the monthly output of small tractors is 24,600 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 行业消息 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that US President Trump's newly announced tariff measures have muddled the inflation outlook, making it more difficult for him to support Trump's advocated interest - rate cut policy. - The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, the effects of the implemented monetary policy will further emerge, and in the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, closely monitor and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the policy implementation intensity and rhythm according to domestic and foreign economic and financial situations and financial market operations [2].