可转债周报：“反内卷”行情持续升温，强赎集中触发-20250714

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July 1, 2025, the "anti - involution" policy has been in force. The risk of price war in the automobile industry has decreased, and the valuation of convertible bonds in the manufacturing sector has risen. The weighted index of underlying stocks of convertible bonds has increased by 7.88% since the "anti - involution" market started at the end of June. As of July 11, the forced redemption probability in July is 62.0%, at the second - highest point since 2021 [1][12]. - The game space for near - maturity convertible bonds has narrowed. The fitted premium rates of convertible bonds with remaining terms of 0 - 1 year and 1 - 2 years have increased by 1.94pct and 1.85pct respectively compared to the end of June [2]. - As of July 11, among 463 listed companies in the convertible bond market, 40 have released 2025 semi - annual report performance forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 8.64% and a pre - happy rate of 60.00%. Performance clues are mainly concentrated in resource products, and their performance may continue to be realized in the second half of the year [3][19]. - Last week, the main stock indexes rose, and the convertible bond market followed. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds increased by 0.72% compared to the previous Friday. Only the conversion premium rate of high - rated convertible bonds increased [22][32]. - Last week, 4 convertible bonds announced redemptions, and no convertible bond's board of directors proposed a downward revision. Huachen and Luwei convertible bonds were listed, and Guanghe convertible bond was issued, with an expected issuance scale of about 7 billion yuan [4][5]. Summary According to the Directory "Anti - involution" Market Continues to Heat Up, and Forced Redemptions are Triggered Concentratedly - The "anti - involution" policy has been continuously strengthened. The risk of price war in the automobile industry has decreased, and the fitted premium rate of the manufacturing sector's convertible bonds has increased by 0.45pct compared to the previous Friday as of July 11 [10]. - Driven by the equity market, most convertible bonds have accumulated more days to trigger redemption clauses. As of July 11, 10 convertible bonds have announced redemptions and are waiting for delisting, with a total balance of 5.414 billion yuan, and 50 convertible bonds have accumulated redemption days, with a total balance of 22.888 billion yuan [12]. - The proportion of forced redemptions has increased marginally. Some "new - issue bonds" are also actively redeeming. The game space for near - maturity convertible bonds has narrowed, and investment strategies may need adjustment [15]. How is the Performance Forecast During the Semi - annual Report Window? - As of July 11, 40 out of 463 listed companies in the convertible bond market have released 2025 semi - annual report performance forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 8.64% and a pre - happy rate of 60.00%. Performance clues are mainly concentrated in resource products [19]. - Due to the summer peak electricity consumption, price increases, and the "anti - involution" policy, the performance of resource products may continue to be realized, and convertible bonds upstream of the silicon chain may improve their profitability [19]. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rise Weekly, and Valuation Slightly Increases at a High Level Weekly Market Conditions: The Convertible Bond Market Rises, and Most Sectors Perform Strongly - Last week, the main stock indexes rose, and the convertible bond market followed. There are 480 issued and non - matured convertible bonds, with a balance of 653.887 billion yuan. Some convertible bonds are yet to be listed, and there are no convertible bonds to be issued currently [22]. - Most industries in the A - share and convertible bond markets rose. The real estate, steel, and non - bank finance industries led the rise in the A - share market, while the environmental protection, non - bank finance, and coal sectors led the rise in the convertible bond market [27]. Valuation Performance: Only the Conversion Premium Rate of High - rated Convertible Bonds Increases - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds is 124.16 yuan, a 0.72% increase from the previous Friday. The closing prices of equity - biased, bond - biased, and balanced convertible bonds have all increased. The proportion of convertible bonds in the 110 - 120 (including 120) price range has decreased significantly [32]. - The 100 - yuan parity fitted conversion premium rate of the convertible bond market is 25.38%, a 0.26pct increase from the previous Friday. Only the conversion premium rate of high - rated convertible bonds has increased, while most ratings and scales have seen a compression in the premium rate [32]. Terms and Supply: 4 Convertible Bonds Announce Redemptions, and the Expected Issuance Scale is About 12 Billion Yuan Terms: Last Week, 4 Convertible Bonds Announced Redemptions, and No Convertible Bond's Board of Directors Proposed a Downward Revision - As of July 11, Weilong, Quanfeng, Zhite, and Henghui convertible bonds announced redemptions; Guansheng, Huitong, and Qilu convertible bonds announced redemption arrangements. 13 convertible bonds announced no downward revisions, and 5 convertible bonds are expected to trigger downward revisions [4][49]. Primary Market: Last Week, Huachen and Luwei Convertible Bonds were Listed, and Guanghe Convertible Bond was Issued, with an Expected Issuance Scale of About 7 Billion Yuan - Last week, Huachen and Luwei convertible bonds were listed, with a total scale of 1.075 billion yuan, and Guanghe convertible bond was issued, with a scale of 4.9 billion yuan [54]. - As of July 11, 3 listed companies have obtained convertible bond issuance approvals, with a planned issuance scale of 4.11 billion yuan. 3 listed companies have passed the review committee, with a total scale of 2.62 billion yuan. There were no new board of directors' proposals last week [63].