Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The upward movement of the lithium carbonate futures market is due to domestic anti - involution measures, but the current market deviates significantly from the fundamentals, and the rebound height is limited under the loose supply - demand pattern [3]. - The urea market has seen a price drop on the futures side, and although export orders are being executed, the domestic supply - demand remains loose, and the subsequent quota issue may continue to affect the market, with limited room for a deep decline [4]. - The price of Shanghai copper has declined this week mainly due to the proposed 50% copper tariff by the US. The supply - side pressure has eased, and the market is under pressure. However, if the Fed's independence is compromised and the US dollar declines, it will support the market, and the downside space for copper is limited [9]. - The easing of Middle East geopolitical risks has alleviated concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. The market should pay attention to the subsequent development of the situation in the Middle East. The current market has factored in the accelerated production increase by OPEC +, and it is expected that crude oil prices will oscillate strongly in the near term [11]. - It is recommended to go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread on dips as it gradually enters the peak season [13]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and other products are expected to oscillate at low levels due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, trade policies, and seasonal impacts [14][16][17]. - The price of soybean oil is approaching the pressure level of 8000 yuan/ton, and the supply is abundant while the demand is under pressure. In the long - term, the demand in the bio - fuel industry may affect the price trend [19]. - The price of soybean meal is oscillating strongly, and the supply is increasing. The subsequent demand may increase with the rise in pig - breeding profits. In the long - term, factors such as US soybean planting area and Sino - US tariffs need to be observed [22]. - The short - term sentiment in the steel market has improved, but the steel demand is greatly affected by seasonal factors. It is expected that the upward momentum of steel prices will be limited, and the market will continue to oscillate [25]. - The hot - rolled coil market is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to production, inventory, PMI, and tariff policies [26]. - The short - term market for coking coal remains strong, mainly due to the phased reduction in supply and the expectation of capacity clearance [28]. Summary by Product Lithium Carbonate - The futures market rose nearly 4% today, with the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate at 64,650 yuan/ton and industrial - grade at 63,050 yuan/ton, both up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3]. - The supply is abundant, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 62% and an increase in June production to 74,000 tons. The inventory is accumulating, and the pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term [3]. - The downstream is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. The consumption data of new - energy vehicles in June increased, with retail sales of 1.071 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month increase of 4% [3]. Urea - The futures market opened lower and weakened today. The spot price has risen slightly since the weekend, mainly due to the strong performance of last week's futures [4]. - The supply side has pressure, with the daily output fluctuating around 200,000 tons, and new production capacity will be gradually put into operation [4]. - The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the agricultural demand in the main delivery areas is decreasing. The inventory is decreasing, which boosts the market [4]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper has been affected by the Fed's potential interest - rate cut and the US tariff policy. The proposed 50% copper tariff by the US has led to a decline in prices [9]. - The supply - side pressure has eased, with the processing fees of copper smelters stabilizing, and the copper concentrate inventory increasing. The tight supply expectation has been alleviated [9]. - The downstream demand is weak, with a decline in the cable start - up rate in June and the air - conditioning industry entering the off - season [9]. Crude Oil - The easing of Middle East geopolitical risks has reduced concerns about supply disruptions, but the subsequent development of the situation still needs attention [11]. - The market has factored in the accelerated production increase by OPEC + in August (an increase of 548,000 barrels per day), and OPEC has lowered the global oil demand forecast for the next four years [11]. - The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the near term due to factors such as the seasonal peak season and potential US sanctions on Russian oil [11]. Asphalt - The supply side has seen an increase in the start - up rate, with a planned production of 2.542 million tons in July, a month - on - month increase of 6.0% and a year - on - year increase of 23.6% [12]. - The downstream start - up rate has mostly declined, affected by funds and weather. The inventory of refineries has increased slightly but remains at a low level in recent years [12]. - It is recommended to go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread on dips as it enters the peak season [13]. PP - The downstream start - up rate has declined, and the US tariff policy is unfavorable for exports. The upstream propane import is restricted [14]. - The supply side has new production capacity, and the start - up rate of enterprises has increased. The inventory pressure is still large, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate is at a low level. The US tariff policy affects exports, and the upstream ethane import is restricted [15]. - New production capacity has been put into operation, and the start - up rate has increased slightly. The demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large, with a low - level oscillation expected [16]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. The export is restricted by policies [17]. - The inventory is high, and new production capacity is about to be put into operation. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - The price of the main 09 contract has increased slightly, approaching the 8000 yuan/ton pressure level [18]. - The supply is abundant, with a good outlook for US soybean production and sufficient domestic supply in July [19]. - The demand is under pressure due to the price advantage of palm oil and the impact of high - temperature weather. In the long - term, the demand in the bio - fuel industry may affect the price [19]. Soybean Meal - The price of the main 09 contract has oscillated strongly, and the market sentiment has slightly improved [20]. - The supply is increasing, and the demand may increase with the rise in pig - breeding profits. The current downstream replenishment is weak [22]. - In the long - term, factors such as US soybean planting area and Sino - US tariffs need to be observed [22]. Rebar - The futures market has shown a pattern of "rising and then falling, closing slightly higher". The supply reduction expectation is strong, but the actual implementation is limited [23]. - The demand is in the off - season, with a decline in daily average trading volume, but the weekly apparent consumption remains above 2.2 million tons [23]. - The inventory is decreasing, and the cost support is strong in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The futures market has shown a pattern of "rising and then being blocked, closing slightly higher". The supply pressure is increasing, and the weekly output is expected to exceed 3.25 million tons [26]. - The demand is weak, with the weekly apparent consumption remaining below 1.8 million tons. The inventory transfer from factories to social warehouses is slow [26]. - The cost provides support, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [26]. Coking Coal - The price has increased today. The supply pressure has eased due to the reduction in Mongolian coal imports and the resumption of domestic mines [27]. - The market is affected by anti - involution measures, and the inventory has been transferred downward. The short - term market is strong [28].
冠通每日交易策略-20250714
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-07-14 12:07