双焦期货周度报告：供给恢复缓慢，上游去库放缓-20250714

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic coking coal and coke prices showed a stable and slightly upward trend this week. The supply of coking coal was tight, with slow recovery. The iron - water output remained at a high level. The market sentiment was positive, and the futures market was expected to fluctuate in the short term. Investment strategies included mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see approach for inter - period arbitrage and coking profit [2][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The prices of domestic coking coal and coke were stable with a slight upward trend. On Friday, some coke enterprises in Hebei proposed the first - round price increase. The prices of different types of coke increased by 70 - 95 yuan/ton. Some regions saw coking coal price increases of 30 - 100 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - President Xi Jinping pointed out the development direction of the coal industry during an inspection in Shanxi, aiming to build a new energy system [6]. - In June 2025, China's PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, while CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month [6]. - From January to June, the cumulative transaction area of first - and second - hand housing in Shanghai increased by 17% year - on - year, with second - hand housing increasing by 24% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the production and sales of automobiles exceeded 15 million, with new energy vehicles growing significantly. In June, the production and sales of automobiles also showed year - on - year growth [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Coal mines in Changzhi had reduced production due to relocation, and many mines in Shaanxi were under maintenance. The overall supply was tight. The iron - water output was around 240 tons this week, remaining at a high level [2]. - Demand side: Coke production decreased slightly, downstream coke enterprises actively replenished stocks, the trading atmosphere of coking coal was good, and coal mine inventories continued to decline but at a slower pace [33]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply: Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have resumed production, but there are still new production cuts in other areas of Shanxi, and environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia are getting stricter. The supply recovery is slow [33]. - Import: The Ganqimaodu Port was closed this week and will resume on July 16th, with an average daily clearance of 744 vehicles during the previous four - day clearance [33]. - Investment strategies: Range - bound operations for single - side trading, wait - and - see for inter - period arbitrage and coking profit [2][33].