避险情绪再起，贵金属震荡偏多

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term investment rating of "oscillating with a bullish bias" for precious metals [5] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical issues such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and US tariff policies have reignited safe - haven demand, supporting the price of gold and driving up the price of silver. The factors affecting precious metals have become more complex, and their price trends are more uncertain [2][3] - Although the better - than - expected US non - farm and employment data have weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in July, the US tariff policy has increased market risk - aversion. The Fed's future rate - cut expectations are more uncertain. Silver has broken through the oscillating range, and the safe - haven demand for gold has strengthened again, but its further upward momentum needs to be observed [28] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Due to the strong US economic data and the Fed's internal differences and tariff - related safe - haven factors, the market's expectation of a July rate cut has weakened, but gold has strengthened again, and US silver has broken through the oscillating range and moved upward [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - Market concerns about new US sanctions on Russia have increased potential supply risks and pushed up international oil prices. The EU may join Canada and Japan in countering US tariffs [12][19] - Trump's tariff policy may push up consumer prices, while the labor market shows signs of cooling, posing a difficult problem for the Fed's policy - making [12] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased for the fourth consecutive week, reaching a two - month low, while the number of continued jobless claims remained at the highest level since the end of 2021 [12][15][16] - Some Fed officials believe that the Fed may cut interest rates in July or twice this year, but policy prospects are highly uncertain [15] - Trump announced new tariff policies on 8 countries, with rates ranging from 20% to 50%, effective August 1 [15][19] - The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in June, and recent indicators show that economic activity continues to expand steadily [15] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US employment data shows a mixed picture, with some positive and some negative signs. The first - quarter GDP shrank, personal consumption growth was weak, and inflation pressure remained [16] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - Trump's new tariff policies and potential sanctions on Russia have increased market uncertainty. The G7 has reached an agreement on tax issues with the US [19] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The improvement in the Middle East situation has led to a significant drop in oil prices, weakening US inflation pressure. The divergence in copper prices is due to US tariff policies. The US economy's resilience supports the strength of the US stock market, which is positive for silver [20] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - Due to multiple factors, the RMB has appreciated significantly and then slightly depreciated, maintaining an appreciation trend. Exchange rates are not a key factor affecting precious metals [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The better - than - expected US non - farm and employment data have weakened the expectation of a July rate cut, but the tariff policy has increased risk - aversion. The future trend of precious metals needs to pay attention to the US dollar index and the relationship between the US dollar and gold [28]