美关税预期升温，金价强势运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, overseas gold prices rebounded after falling below $3300, and domestic Shanghai gold rebounded after falling below 770 yuan. The market's tariff expectations increased, which is favorable for gold prices. Technically, the futures price stabilized and recovered, standing above $3300 and the 60 - day moving average again, and is expected to maintain a strong operation. Silver increased in position and rose significantly last week, breaking through the previous high, and the gold - silver ratio declined accordingly. Silver's upward movement is the result of the resonance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, with strong upward momentum. In the long - term, since the relaxation of the US tariff policy, the risk appetite of the market has recovered, the gold price has declined significantly under pressure, and the gold - silver ratio has continued to weaken. Technically, the 60 - day moving average can be used as a reference indicator for long - term upward movement, and the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions may increase after the price falls below it [3][25] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold, but no specific written summary of the weekly trend is provided [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | July 11 | July 3 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,370.30 | $3,336.00 | 1.03% | | COMEX Silver | $39.08 | $37.04 | 5.49% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 773.56 yuan | 781.28 yuan | - 0.99% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 9,040.00 yuan | 8,944.00 yuan | 1.07% | | US Dollar Index | 97.86 | 97.12 | 0.76% | | US Dollar against Offshore RMB | 7.17 | 7.17 | 0.05% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 2.06 | 2.02 | 0.04 | | S&P 500 | 6,259.75 | 6,279.35 | - 0.31% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $68.75 | $67.18 | 2.34% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 86.25 | 90.06 | - 4.23% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 85.57 | 87.35 | - 2.04% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 947.64 | 947.66 | - 0.02 | | iShare Gold ETF | 443.06 | 442.24 | 0.82 | [8] 2. Rising US Tariff Expectations Favorable for Gold Prices - July 9 was the deadline for the 90 - day tariff extension between the US and other countries, and the market's tariff expectations increased, which is favorable for gold prices. On July 12, US President Trump announced that starting from August 1, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU. The upward trend of the three major US stock indexes slowed down last week, showing high - level fluctuations, which is largely affected by the tariff policy [10][12] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the non - commercial long net position of COMEX has continued to recover. As of July 8, the long position changed by 3,054 contracts, the short position changed by 2,066 contracts, and the long net position changed by 988 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness. Since late May, gold ETFs have started to rise. In early June, silver rose significantly, and the corresponding ETFs increased their positions significantly, with both volume and price increasing. After silver broke through the high point in May 2024, the attention of funds increased rapidly, and it is expected to maintain its strength. The gold - silver ratio has been in a weak operation, and silver is expected to continue its upward trend due to the resonance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals [14][19] 4. Conclusion - The conclusions are consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that gold prices are expected to maintain a strong operation in the short - term, while in the long - term, they are under pressure and the gold - silver ratio continues to weaken [25]