山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment has suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short term, fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - Gold price trends serve as an anchor for silver prices. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 1.06%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.11%. [1] - Core Logic: Short - term trade war enters a new stage; economic recession and geopolitical risks remain; US economic stagflation risk increases; strong employment suppresses interest - rate cut expectations. [1] - Safe - Haven Attribute: Trump escalated the trade war, threatening to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico. [1] - Monetary Attribute: Fed officials' views on interest - rate prospects differ due to different expectations of how tariffs may affect inflation. Strong US employment growth has eliminated the possibility of a near - term Fed interest - rate cut. The market now expects the next Fed interest - rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest - rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. [1] - Commodity Attribute: The CRB commodity index has faced pressure in its rebound, and the strong RMB has suppressed domestic prices. [1] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] Silver - Price Anchor: Gold price trends are the anchor for silver prices. [5] - Capital and Inventory: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have reduced their positions again, and the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [6] Fundamental Key Data - Fed - Related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are $67,132.36 billion, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.50%. [8] - US Treasury and Dollar Data: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.60%, the US dollar index is 97.86, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.51, and the US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year) is - 0.02. [8][10] - Inflation Data: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.80%, core CPI month - on - month is 0.20%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.34%, and core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.68%. [10] - Economic Growth Data: US GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is - 0.50%, the unemployment rate is 4.10%, and non - farm payrolls monthly change is 14.70 million. [10] - Other Data: The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, the VIX index is 17.65, the CRB commodity index is 303.52, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1706. [11] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels at different meetings from July 2025 to December 2026 is presented in a table, showing the changing market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions over time. [12]