关税冲击下，沪铜伦铜承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on all imported copper starting from August 1st, causing pressure on both Shanghai and London copper prices. Last week, Shanghai copper witnessed a significant decline with reduced positions and lower market attention. The market is concerned about the upcoming tariff implementation, which may lead to a closure of the US import window and a notable drop in US imports. As a result, supply in non - US regions may increase, causing the prices of London and Shanghai copper to fall. The spot premium of London and Shanghai copper decreased significantly last week, indicating a relief in the shortage of spot copper. In the short term, due to the tariff impact, copper prices have dropped to the June price center. With positive domestic macro - expectations, a general rise in commodities and the stock market, and strong industrial support, Shanghai copper may receive strong support, and the LME import loss is narrowing rapidly. Technically, both Shanghai and London copper have strong support at the June price center [3][60]. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices rebounded to previous highs, and the trading volume also increased, showing strong performance in the non - ferrous metals sector. The improvement in the domestic macro - environment has largely boosted aluminum prices, as commodities and the stock market generally rose last week, especially the black metal sector. In the industry, as the prices of alumina and coal continue to rebound, the cost of electrolytic aluminum plants has increased, and the profit margin at the high level has declined. The downstream is in the off - season of consumption, and combined with the rising aluminum prices, the destocking of electrolytic aluminum has slowed down, and the inventory of aluminum rods at a low level has continued to rise, which has a certain drag on aluminum prices. With a good domestic macro - atmosphere, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong trend, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [4][60]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - Local time on July 12th, US President Trump announced on the social media platform "Truth Social" that starting from August 1st, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU [8]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Volume - Price Trends - No specific text description of trends, but figures show copper futures prices, Shanghai - London ratio, 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount seasonality, Shanghai copper positions, COMEX non - commercial long net positions, etc [10][11][13][14]. 3.2.2 Continuous Decline in Copper Ore Processing Fees - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, reflecting both the tight supply of copper ore and the over - capacity of smelting. The port inventory of domestic copper ore is similar to that of the same period last year, indicating an expected tight supply of domestic ore and that the low TC is mainly due to over - capacity in smelting [24]. 3.2.3 Slowing Down of Electrolytic Copper Destocking - The destocking of domestic and overseas electrolytic copper has slowed down, as shown by the data of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) [28][29]. 3.2.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries is presented, including copper rods, tubes, bars, and strips [31][32]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Volume - Price Trends - No specific text description of trends, but figures show aluminum prices, Shanghai - London ratio, London aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai aluminum monthly spread, etc [33][34][38][40]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - Figures show the port inventory of bauxite and the price of alumina [46][49]. 3.3.3 Slowing Down of Electrolytic Aluminum Destocking - The destocking of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum has slowed down, as shown by the data of overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory [50][51]. 3.3.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are presented [53][57][58]. 3.4 Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core views of the report, emphasizing the impact of the US copper tariff on copper prices and the influence of domestic macro - environment and industrial factors on aluminum prices [60].