有色金属周报（锌）：累库趋势渐显，沪锌或偏弱整理-20250714

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Macro - "anti - involution" brings strong bullish sentiment, but the zinc market sees increases in both ore and ingot supply. The demand side is in the off - season, and the zinc market's inventory accumulation trend is gradually emerging. The fundamentals are weak, and the rebound of zinc prices is limited. It is expected to maintain a weak consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton, and the view of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. Continued attention should be paid to macro and downstream consumption conditions [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - The closing price of SMM1 zinc ingot average price increased by 0.09% to 22,360 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract decreased by 0.13% to 22,380 yuan/ton; the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) increased by 0.09% to 2,738 US dollars/ton [11]. 2. Raw Material End 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - As of July 11, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period; the total inventory of 7 ports was 333,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period [20]. - As of July 10, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,064 yuan/metal ton. In May, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 491,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%; from January to May, the cumulative import volume was 2.204 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46% [26]. - As of July 11, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index increased to 66.48 US dollars/dry ton [3]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of July 10, the production profit was - 234 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc output was 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and the output in July is expected to remain high [37]. - The import profit window was closed. As of July 11, the import profit of refined zinc was - 1,523.72 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31,200 tons [40]. 3. Downstream Demand 3.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise's operating rate increased by 1.81 percentage points to 58.29%. The raw material inventory and finished product inventory of galvanizing enterprises increased [46][49]. 3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The price of zinc alloy fluctuated slightly. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy increased by 0.09% to 23,055 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy increased by 0.08% to 23,605 yuan/ton [53]. - The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 4.8 percentage points to 53.94%. The raw material inventory and finished product inventory increased [56][59][60]. 3.3 Zinc Oxide - The price of zinc oxide remained stable. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [67]. - The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 0.30 percentage points to 55.84%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory fluctuated slightly [70][73]. 4. Inventory - As of July 14, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 86,100 tons, an increase in inventory. As of July 10, the SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 6,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period [78]. - As of July 11, the SHFE inventory was 50,000 tons, an increase in inventory, and the LME inventory was 105,250 tons, a continuous decrease in inventory [81].