钢材期货周度报告：宏观情绪升温，短期高度有限-20250714

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices rebounded from the bottom, with the average national rebar price rising by 35 yuan/ton week-on-week. Affected by the "anti-involution" policy, the overall market sentiment is positive. Coupled with factors such as the increase in coking coal prices and northern production restriction news, the cost support for raw materials has increased, and the market sentiment for price support and increase is strong. For next week, the supply-demand fundamentals may improve to some extent, but the weak demand restricts market confidence to a certain extent [2][3]. - The contradiction in the off-season fundamentals is not obvious. The supply-side contraction expectation formed by the "anti-involution" policy and the Shanxi production restriction news, along with the weak demand, restricts market confidence. It is expected that the short-term futures market may fluctuate narrowly [28]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, steel prices rebounded from the bottom, with the average national rebar price rising by 35 yuan/ton week-on-week. Affected by the "anti-involution" policy, the overall market sentiment is positive. Coupled with factors such as the increase in coking coal prices and northern production restriction news, the cost support for raw materials has increased, and the market sentiment for price support and increase is strong. For next week, the supply-demand fundamentals may improve to some extent, but the weak demand restricts market confidence to a certain extent [2][3]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News - President Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that while ensuring the supply of national thermal coal, efforts should be made to upgrade the coal industry from low-end to high-end and transform coal products from primary fuels to high-value products. At the same time, a new energy system should be built by developing wind power, photovoltaic power, hydrogen energy and other energy sources [5]. - The "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the importance of rectifying "involutionary" competition, accurately grasped its harm and causes, and explored effective measures to rectify it in practice to create a fair competition market environment for high-quality development [5]. - In June 2025, China's PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month [5]. - 33 construction enterprises jointly issued an "anti-involution" initiative in the construction industry to promote industry transformation and abandon "involutionary" competition [5]. - From January to June, the cumulative transaction area of first-hand and second-hand housing in Shanghai reached 13.11 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 17%, reaching the highest level in the same period since 2022. Among them, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand housing was 9.85 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 24% [5]. - In the first half of 2025, the production and sales of automobiles both exceeded 15 million units, with a year-on-year increase of over 10%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 41.4% and 40.3% respectively. In June, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.794 million and 2.904 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 11.4% and 13.8% respectively [6]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of the national passenger car market in June reached 2.11 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%. The domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in June reached 1.111 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29.7% [6]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 99,300 tons, lower than last week's 106,800 tons. Affected by the typhoon, the rainy weather in East and South China had a great impact on the enthusiasm of terminal procurement, and the terminal procurement enthusiasm was average [8]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - It is expected that the short-term futures market may fluctuate narrowly. Recently, the prices of black commodities have accelerated their rise, with the weekly increase of main coking coal reaching 7.41%, coke rising by 5.81%, iron ore rising by 3.8%, hot-rolled coil rising by 1.93%, and rebar rising by 1.65%. The rebar main contract 10 closed at 3,133, up 34 points on the day, 61 points higher than last week's closing price. The weekly settlement price was 3,091, up 55 points, and the latest position was 2.2 million lots, a decrease of 39,000 lots compared with last Friday's position. The price continued to rise this week, with the increase expanding for two consecutive weeks. From last week's low to this week's high, it reached 172 points. Currently, the futures price has returned to the level of mid-April, showing a strong rebound trend. Currently, the futures price is higher than most spot market prices, and attention should be paid to the need for rhythmic adjustments. Pay attention to the support at the 3,100 mark below and the pressure in the range of 3,150 - 3,200 above [28]. - Investment strategies: For single-side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for steel profits, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][28].