有色金属周报（铅）：暂无突出矛盾，铅价区间整理-20250714

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with no prominent contradictions in the fundamentals. Considering the strong support from the raw material side, it is expected that the lead price will mainly fluctuate within a range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro - factors on the lead price [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.59% to 16,925 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 1.27% to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.94% to 2,017 US dollars/ton [12]. - Basis: No specific summary was made in the content, only historical basis data trends were presented [13][14][15]. 2. Raw Materials and Primary Lead - Raw Materials: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 550 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 55 US dollars/dry ton. The tight supply of lead concentrates is expected to continue, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of July 4, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 82.7 yuan/ton [29]. - Primary Lead Production: The primary lead operating rate decreased to 66.88%. A refinery in Henan reduced its weekly output due to equipment failure and is expected to resume normal production this week. A refinery in North China is expected to end maintenance and resume production in mid - to - late July. Another smelter in East China plans a long - term maintenance in the fourth quarter [30][34]. - Weekly Output of Deliverable Primary Lead Smelters: The total annual production capacity is 3.29 million tons, the monthly production capacity is 260,000 tons, and the weekly production capacity is 63,300 tons. The total output in the week of July 4 was 49,065 tons, in the week of July 11 was 47,815 tons, and this week's expected output is 49,065 tons [35]. 3. Recycled Lead - Waste Battery Price: As of July 11, the average price of waste batteries was 10,300 yuan/ton, remaining flat. The tight supply of waste batteries has not improved, and the purchase price has not changed significantly [43]. - Recycled Lead Smelter Profit: As of July 11, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 408 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 636 yuan/ton [49]. - Raw Material and Finished Product Inventory: As of July 10, the raw material inventory of recycled lead increased, and the finished product inventory decreased. The raw material inventory was 126,500 tons, and the finished product inventory was 22,400 tons [53]. - Recycled Lead Operating Rate: The recycled lead enterprise operating rate increased by 0.70 percentage points to 35.5%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of recycled lead was 37,000 tons, showing a decline. A refinery in Anhui that was under maintenance has recently restarted the furnace but has not yet produced lead. A refinery in Inner Mongolia has no plan to resume production in the near future, and the operating rate fluctuates slightly [54]. 4. Lead Batteries - The operating rate of lead batteries decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 70.76%. The domestic electric bicycle and battery markets have not improved significantly. Dealers are mainly consuming inventory, and enterprise orders are weak. The export pressure of lead batteries is increasing as the US tariff suspension period is about to end [59]. 5. Import and Export - As of July 4, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,400 yuan/ton. As of July 11, the import profit was - 741.56 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [64]. 6. Inventory - Domestic Social Inventory: As of July 14, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 63,400 tons, showing an increase. Downstream buyers are cautious due to high prices, and inventory has accumulated due to the large spot - futures price difference [75]. - SHFE and LME Inventory: As of July 11, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 55,100 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 249,400 tons, showing a decrease [78]. - Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from January 2024 to May 2025 [79].