库存预期高位，震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current profit of some soda ash enterprises is slightly in the red, and the domestic soda ash production is expected to rise to a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The expected output of downstream float glass will increase, while the daily melting volume of downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Against the backdrop of a loose supply - demand situation for soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises has risen to a high level, and it is expected that the soda ash inventory will remain at a high level in the near future. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 09 contract at the 1270 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to setting stop - losses [2][21]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market has shown a weak trend, with prices gradually declining. The weekly domestic soda ash production was 709,000 tons, remaining the same as the previous week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.32%, also unchanged from the previous week. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8634 million tons, an increase of 53,900 tons or 2.98% from the previous week. The enterprises' shipment slowed down, and some enterprises' inventories accumulated. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises increased to over 12 days, an increase of about 2 days [8]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply - side: As of July 10, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.32%, the same as the previous week. The ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate was 82.56%, a 1.24% increase, and the co - production capacity utilization rate was 70.33%, a 3.04% decrease. This week, the soda ash operating rate is expected to exceed 84%. The theoretical profit of China's co - production soda ash (double - ton) was - 39.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from the previous week. The theoretical profit of China's ammonia - alkali soda ash was - 82.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - Demand - side: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass was 71.01%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The industry's production reduction rhythm is slow, demand is weak, and the high - inventory situation is difficult to reverse. The national daily output of float glass was 158,400 tons, a 0.41% increase from July 3. The weekly output of float glass was 1.107 million tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week and a 7.16% decrease from the same period last year [15]. - Inventory: As of July 10, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.8634 million tons, a 2.98% increase from the previous week and a 106.22% increase from the same period last year. The inventory of soda ash enterprises continued to increase due to the poor purchasing enthusiasm of major downstream enterprises and weak follow - up of new orders [17]. 2.2 Position Analysis - As of July 11, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures market were 1,166,121, an increase of 56,509, and the short positions were 1,558,689, an increase of 94,504. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [19]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of some soda ash enterprises is slightly in the red, and the domestic soda ash production is expected to rise to a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The expected output of downstream float glass will increase, while the daily melting volume of downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Against the backdrop of a loose supply - demand situation for soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises has risen to a high level, and it is expected that the soda ash inventory will remain at a high level in the near future. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 09 contract at the 1270 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to setting stop - losses [2][21].