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苯乙烯开始累库,3S开工回落
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-14 13:05

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The pure benzene market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The overall start - up of petroleum benzene devices has changed little, while the start - up of hydro - benzene has reached a historical high. The demand has recovered to the level before the second - quarter maintenance period. In the third quarter, new downstream device launches may bring arbitrage opportunities. The spot price has increased, but there is no substantial improvement in demand [6]. - The benzene - ethylene market is weak due to the deterioration of the supply - demand structure. Supply is under continuous pressure, and demand from the 3S products is weakening. The supply - demand gap is widening, and the market is entering a stock - building phase. Although the short - term market is supported by oil prices and macro - sentiment, the fundamentals are bearish [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - Price: On July 11, the benzene - ethylene main contract closed down 1.38% at 7416 yuan/ton, with a basis of 309 (+104 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.51% at 6183 yuan/ton [4]. - Cost: On July 11, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.6 dollars/barrel (-1.8 dollars/barrel), WTI at 68.6 dollars/barrel (-1.6 dollars/barrel), and the East China pure benzene spot price was 5945 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton) [4]. - Inventory: Benzene - ethylene sample factory inventory was 21.0 million tons (+1.6 million tons), a sequential increase of 8.1%; Jiangsu port inventory was 11.2 million tons (+1.3 million tons), a sequential increase of 12.9% [4]. - Supply: Benzene - ethylene maintenance devices returned, and the overall supply was stable. The weekly output was 36.3 million tons (-0.4 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 79.2% (-0.8%) [4]. - Demand: The start - up rates of downstream 3S products varied. EPS capacity utilization was 51.1% (-4.82%), ABS was 65.0% (+0.0%), and PS was 51.1% (-1.3%), with the overall start - up rate declining [5]. (2) Views - Pure Benzene: Supply - side, the overall start - up of petroleum benzene devices changed little, while hydro - benzene reached a historical high. Demand - side, the start - up rate of caprolactam increased steadily, and the overall demand has recovered. The East China port inventory increased slightly this week. In the third quarter, new device launches may bring arbitrage opportunities [6]. - Benzene - Ethylene: The market trend was weak due to the worsening supply - demand structure. Supply was under pressure, and demand from 3S products decreased. The supply - demand gap widened, and the market entered a stock - building phase. Although the short - term market was supported, the fundamentals were bearish [7]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - Prices: Benzene - ethylene and pure benzene prices showed different trends on July 11 compared to July 10. The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI, and naphtha also changed [9]. - Output and Inventory: From July 4 to July 11, the output of benzene - ethylene and pure benzene in China decreased slightly, while the inventory of benzene - ethylene increased and that of pure benzene decreased slightly [10]. - Start - up Rates: The capacity utilization rates of pure benzene and benzene - ethylene downstream products changed from July 4 to July 11, with some increasing and some decreasing [11]. 3. Industry News - In 2025, the basic pension for retirees will be raised by 2% [12]. - Trump said that if Canada raises tariffs, the US will raise its 35% tariff on Canada accordingly [12]. - Trump plans to impose 15% or 20% general tariffs on most trading partners [12]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene prices, benzene - ethylene prices, benzene - ethylene - pure benzene spreads, inventory, and capacity utilization rates of related products [13][18][19]