供需格局边际转弱，PX、PTA仍相对颓势运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and PX & PTA are still running in a relatively sluggish state. The polyester chain commodities are expected to continue to face pressure in the short term, with the prices in the PX - PTA segment likely to continue the downward trend and the risk of downstream negative feedback increasing [2][4]. - PX prices may continue to be under pressure due to the weakening of crude oil prices, the convergence of basis, and the expected compression of processing fees. PTA may maintain a weak and volatile pattern, with the decline of PX weakening cost support, and the weak downstream polyester demand and low processing fees limiting the downside space [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On July 11, the PX main contract closed at 6,694.0 yuan/ton, down 1.3% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 106.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,700.0 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 50.0 yuan/ton. The weakening of crude oil prices suppresses the cost side, and the convergence of basis implies weakened spot support. With the expected compression of PX processing fees, prices may continue to be weak. PTA may maintain a weak and volatile pattern [3]. Polyester - On July 11, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,508.0 yuan/ton, down 0.52% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,660.0 yuan/ton, down 30.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 152.0 yuan/ton. The continuous decline of PX and PTA futures prices reflects the loosening of cost support and the pressure of loose supply. The 15 - day moving average trading volume of Light Textile City has decreased, indicating weakened downstream procurement demand. The inventory days of polyester filament varieties and short - fibers are significantly higher than the five - year average, highlighting the inventory pressure in the entire industrial chain [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 1.30% to 6,694 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 17.19%, and the open interest increased by 1.95%. The spot prices in China's main port CFR and South Korea FOB remained unchanged. The PX basis increased by 488.89% to 106 yuan/ton [5]. - PTA: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 0.89% to 4,700 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 22.82%, and the open interest decreased by 2.69%. The spot price in China's main port CFR remained unchanged. The PTA basis increased by 525.00% to 50 yuan/ton. The PTA 5 - 9 spread decreased by 650.00%, and the PTA 9 - 1 spread increased by 216.67%. The PTA import profit increased by 0.33% [5]. - Short - fiber: The main contract price of short - fiber futures decreased by 0.52% to 6,508 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 25.78%, and the open interest decreased by 14.93%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.45% to 6,660 yuan/ton. The PF basis increased by 2.70%. The PF 1 - 5 spread decreased by 84.62%, and the PF 5 - 9 spread increased [5]. - Other prices: The price of Brent crude oil's main contract remained unchanged at 68.88 dollars/barrel. The prices of CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol remained unchanged. The prices of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY all decreased [5]. - Processing spreads: The PX processing spread remained unchanged at 256.67 dollars/ton. The PTA processing spread increased by 1.62% to 141.03 yuan/ton. The processing spreads of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester short - fibers, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY all decreased [6]. - Light Textile City trading volume: On July 10, the total trading volume was 438.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.98%, with 348.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 88.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [9]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 75.86%, 89.42%, and 63.43% respectively [6]. - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester short - fibers decreased by 0.63% to 7.94 days, while those of polyester POY, polyester FDY, and polyester DTY increased by 11.52%, 10.27%, and 2.80% respectively [6]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations Macro Dynamics - On July 11, several Fed officials made statements. Musalem said the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be clear until the end of the year, and the US fiscal deficit may become a financial stability issue in the future. Daly considered implementing interest rate cuts in the fall and thought there would be two rate cuts this year. Waller reiterated the possible reasons for a rate cut in July. The Fed proposed to relax the supervision of large - scale banks. - On July 10, the Fed's June meeting minutes showed that officials were divided on rate cuts. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates again. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The European Central Bank Governing Council member Nagel said the ECB should neither plan nor rule out further rate cuts [7]. Supply - Demand (Demand) - On July 10, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 438.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.98%, with 348.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 88.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [9]. 3.4 Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - For PX, the main contract price decreased by 1.3%, closing at 6,694 yuan/ton with a basis of 106 yuan. The decline in crude oil prices may lead to a further decrease in PX prices. In the short term, PX may continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the trends of crude oil and PX processing fees. - For PTA, the main contract price decreased by 0.89%, with a basis of 50 yuan. The decline in PX prices weakens the cost support for PTA. If the terminal consumption demand does not improve significantly, the demand for PTA may be limited. PTA may continue to be weak under the dual pressure of cost decline and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the downstream restocking trends [36].