玉米周报：7月USDA报告中性偏空，国内玉米继续承压-20250714

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The July USDA report is slightly bearish, and the domestic corn market continues to face pressure. The US corn market is expected to remain in a state of bumper harvest, which will suppress the US corn futures market. In the domestic market, the wheat price is supported by state reserve purchases, but the continuous auction of imported corn and increased supply are dragging down the spot price. In the medium to long term, there may be a supply - demand gap in the third quarter, but the supply pressure will be high in the fourth quarter, so the corn price may rise first and then fall [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - This week, the corn price continued to decline. In the US market, the July USDA report showed a decrease in the expected corn production, consumption, and ending inventory. The good harvest outlook will keep the US corn futures market under pressure. In the domestic market, the end of the wheat harvest and state reserve purchases support the wheat price. The corn market is in the off - season, and the continuous auction of imported corn and increased supply at processing enterprises are pressuring the spot price. In terms of demand, feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the off - season for livestock and processing industries restricts demand. The strategy is that the July USDA report is bearish, and the domestic corn futures market will remain weak in the short term. In the medium to long term, the corn price may rise first and then fall [6]. 3.2 Market Review - The CBOT12 corn closed at 412.25 cents per bushel, down 25 points from last week, a weekly decline of 5.72%. The C2509 corn closed at 2306 yuan per ton, down 47 points from last week, a weekly decline of 2.00% [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Balance Sheet: The US corn planting area was reduced by 100,000 acres to 95.2 million acres, production was reduced by 115 million bushels to 15.705 billion bushels, feed consumption was reduced by 50 million bushels, and ending inventory was reduced by 90 million bushels to 1.66 billion bushels [12][19]. - US Corn Weather: In the next two weeks, the rainfall in the US soybean - growing areas will be average, and the temperature will be low [12]. - US Corn Growth: As of the week of July 6, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 74%, higher than the market expectation of 73%, up from 73% the previous week and 68% in the same period last year [12][22]. - US Corn Exports: As of the week of July 3, the net sales of US corn for the 2024/2025 season were 1.262 million tons, up from 533,000 tons the previous week; for the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 889,000 tons, down from 940,000 tons the previous week [12][26]. - Feed Enterprises: As of July 10, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.58 days, down 0.38 days from last week, a month - on - month decline of 1.19% and a year - on - year increase of 1.38% [12][30]. - Deep - processing Enterprises: From July 3 to July 9, 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1578 million tons of corn, a decrease of 18,500 tons from last week. As of July 9, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 443,600 tons, an increase of 1.88% [34][38]. - Port Inventory: As of July 4, 2025, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 259,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,800 tons; the shipping volume was 41,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,600 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 88,600 tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons from last week; the foreign - trade inventory was 1,300 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week; the imported sorghum was 54,200 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons from last week; the imported barley was 33,800 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from last week [40]. 3.4 Spread Tracking No specific analysis content provided, only the spread types such as corn 9 - 1 spread, powder - rice spread, corn basis, and wheat - rice spread are mentioned [43][46].