Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - Since the Politburo meeting in July last year, the policy level has continuously emphasized "anti-involution." The recent meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission has elevated anti-involution to the national strategic level, raising market expectations for a new round of supply-side reforms [8]. - From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the off-season demand characteristics of finished products are not obvious recently. Varieties such as rebar and hot-rolled coils have not effectively accumulated inventory during the off-season. Coupled with the current policy window period, steel prices are supported to some extent. The rebound pressure of rebar should be noted at the valley electricity cost [8]. Summary by Directory Conclusion and Balance Sheet - Last week, domestic steel spot prices fluctuated and rebounded. The price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3,190 yuan (+50), and that in Tangshan was 3,150 yuan (+40). For hot-rolled coils, the price in Shanghai was 3,300 yuan (+50), and that in Tianjin was 3,200 yuan (+50) [6]. - As of July 10, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 124,400 tons. The factory inventory of the five major products increased by 1,770 tons month-on-month, and the social inventory decreased by 2,120 tons. The apparent demand was 873,070 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 121,900 tons [7]. - As of July 11, on the long-process spot side, the cash含税 cost of rebar in East China's long process was 2,932.5 yuan, and the point-to-point profit was about 257.5 yuan. The cash含税 profit of hot-rolled coils in the long process was about 267.5 yuan. On the electric furnace side, the flat-electric furnace cost in East China (Fubao caliber) was about 3,304 yuan, and the valley-electric cost was about 3,173 yuan. The flat-electric profit of rebar in East China was about -204 yuan, and the valley-electric profit was about -73 yuan [7]. - As of July 10, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,080 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 20 yuan. Data showed that the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 29.6%, a month-on-month increase of 0.7 percentage points; the daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 505,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,700 tons; among them, the daily consumption of 132 long-process steel mills was 255,000 tons/day, a month-on-month decrease of 6,100 tons; the daily consumption of short-process was 14,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 320 tons. In terms of supply, the average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 461,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,300 tons, a decrease of 3.2%. In terms of inventory, the total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 4.621 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 92,700 tons, a decrease of 2%. Overall, the iron-scrap price difference rebounded from a low level this period. After the cost of the long process increased, the price of scrap steel also began to rise. It is expected that the cost of the electric furnace will further increase [7]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Steel Production and Inventory Data: The report provides detailed production and inventory data of five major steel products from May 2, 2025, to July 11, 2025, including rebar, hot-rolled coils, medium and heavy plates, wire rods, and cold-rolled coils [10]. - Crude Steel Production: In 2024, the crude steel production was 1.00509 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons compared with 2023, a decrease of 1.7%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative crude steel production was 432 million tons, a decrease of 1.7% compared with the same period in 2024 [16]. - Monetary Data: In May 2025, the newly added social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 227.1 billion yuan compared with the same period last year and an increase of 113 billion yuan compared with April, higher than the Wind consensus expectation of 2.05 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of the social financing stock in May was 8.7%, the same as that in April, slightly lower than the Wind consensus expectation of 8.8%. The newly added RMB loans in the social financing caliber in May were 59.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.37 billion yuan compared with the same period last year and an increase of 50.76 billion yuan compared with April [18]. - PMI Data: The PMI in June 2025 was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared with May [21]. - Investment Data: From January to May 2025, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1.91947 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Among them, private fixed asset investment was flat year-on-year [26]. - Real Estate Data: From January to May 2025, the national new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%; the housing sales area was 70.53 million square meters, a decrease of 4.6%; the housing completion area was 183.85 million square meters, a decrease of 17.3% [29]. - Crude Steel Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides a detailed supply and demand balance sheet of crude steel from 2019 to 2025E, including crude steel production, pig iron production, scrap steel production, crude steel imports, crude steel exports, and inventory [32]. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - This week, the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar continued to shrink [45]. Supply - Long-Process Supply: As of July 11, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points compared with July 4, a decrease of 0.43%. The daily average pig iron output was 239,800 tons, a decrease of 1,040 tons compared with July 4, a decrease of 0.43% [48]. - Short-Process Supply: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric furnace plants was 29.6% (+0.7). As of July 11, the iron-scrap price difference was -148.64 yuan (+48.7) [51]. - Scrap Steel: The arrival of scrap steel at 255 steel mills decreased month-on-month. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises decreased month-on-month [7]. - Rebar Production: This week, the original sample output of rebar was 216,660 tons (-44,200), of which the long-process output was 189,740 tons (-55,000), and the short-process output was 26,920 tons (+10,800) [64]. Demand - Building Materials Transactions: The report provides transaction data of building materials in different regions, including the northern, eastern, and southern regions [67][69][71]. - Cement Mill Operating Rate: The average operating load of national cement mills was 40.79%, an increase of 0.94 percentage points compared with last week, and the increase rate expanded by 0.14 percentage points [75]. - Real Estate Sales: The report provides high-frequency sales data of 30 cities in the real estate market [77]. - Rebar Inventory: This period, the original sample rebar factory inventory was 180,880 tons (+410), the social inventory was 359,490 tons (-5,250), and the total inventory was 540,370 tons (-4,840) [80]. - Hot-Rolled Coil Supply and Demand: This week, the output of hot-rolled coils was 323,140 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 50,000 tons. The apparent demand was 322,510 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 510 tons, and the social inventory increased by 1,140 tons, with the overall inventory increasing by 630 tons [83]. - Plate Demand: As of July 11, the cold-hot price difference in the Shanghai area was 480 yuan/ton (+20) [90]. - Export Situation: As of July 11, the FOB export price of China was 450 US dollars (-), and the export profit was -18.6 US dollars (-5.2). The outbound volume from 32 major domestic ports was 3.1363 million tons (+691,200) [96].
淡季特征不明显，钢价震荡偏强
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-14 12:58