橡胶甲醇原油：偏多氛围主导，能化震荡偏强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern due to the enhanced domestic macro - atmosphere and better - than - expected new car production and sales data in the first half of the year, despite the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 is likely to maintain a volatile consolidation trend as the steadily rising domestic coal futures prices compete with the weak methanol supply - demand structure [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend as the negative impact of production increases is digested, and the further expansion of production by oil - producing countries is limited [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber: As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a 0.05% increase. The bonded area inventory decreased by 2.36%, while the general trade inventory increased by 0.40%. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79% as of July 10, a 1.66 - percentage - point increase, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a 0.42 - percentage - point decrease. In June 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 56.6%, down 5.7 percentage points year - on - year. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% [8][9]. - Methanol: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the domestic methanol average operating rate was 72.09%, a significant week - on - week decrease of 13.11%. The weekly methanol production was 1.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,100 tons. The inventories in East and South China ports increased significantly week - on - week [10][11]. - Crude Oil: As of the week of June 27, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 432, a week - on - week decrease of 7. As of the week of July 4, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 7.07 million barrels week - on - week. The WTI crude oil futures market net long positions decreased significantly week - on - week, while the Brent crude oil futures market net long positions increased significantly [12][13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,350 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 14,360 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | -10 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,407 yuan/ton | -20 yuan/ton | 2,396 yuan/ton | +26 yuan/ton | 11 yuan/ton | -26 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 482.7 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 513.0 yuan/barrel | +8.8 yuan/barrel | -30.3 yuan/barrel | -8.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: There is a chart of rubber basis [16]. - Methanol: Charts related to methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting are mentioned [29][31][33]. - Crude Oil: Charts related to crude oil basis, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change are mentioned [41][43][49].