铜日报：铜价政策扰动承压，震荡偏弱格局未改-20250714

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Supply - side policy uncertainties are partially offset by increased production from large mines in Chile, but market sentiment remains cautious before the US tariff is implemented. Demand is dominated by the off - season, with only the new energy sector providing some support. The expansion of spot discounts and inventory accumulation suppress price flexibility. Additionally, macro - level trade policy uncertainties limit the upward momentum of copper prices [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - Copper Futures Market Data Changes: On July 11, the SHFE main copper contract rose slightly by 50 yuan to 78,470 yuan/ton. Spot discounts continued to widen, with the premiums of premium copper and flat - water copper dropping to 0 yuan/ton and - 50 yuan/ton respectively. The LME (0 - 3) discount was 0.95 dollars/ton, increasing the pressure on near - term spot. LME copper inventories surged by 1,578 tons to 23,307 tons, a recent high, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons, highlighting inventory pressure. Although the LME copper price rebounded slightly to 9,682 dollars, trading volume and open interest both contracted, indicating a decline in market activity [2] 2. Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - Supply Side: Supply from major mines in Chile and around the world shows significant differentiation. The US plan to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper increases the uncertainty of Chile's exports. Overall, the supply side is marginally looser, but policy risks are rising [3] - Demand Side: The off - season characteristics are significant, and structural differentiation is intensifying. The growth of copper consumption in the photovoltaic industry is expected to slow down after the over - demand in the first half of the year. However, the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which increased by over 40% year - on - year, still support copper prices. Downstream industries generally maintain just - in - time procurement [3] - Inventory Side: Global visible inventories continue to accumulate. LME inventories increased by 1,971 tons compared to July 7, and SHFE and COMEX inventories also rose, reflecting a loose supply - demand pattern in the off - season [3] 3. Market Summary - Short - term copper prices may maintain a weak and volatile trend. Policy uncertainties on the supply side are partially offset by increased production from large mines in Chile, but market sentiment is cautious before the US tariff is implemented. The off - season dominates demand, and only the new energy sector provides some support. The expansion of spot discounts and inventory accumulation suppress price flexibility. Additionally, macro - level trade policy uncertainties limit the upward momentum of copper prices [4] 4. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Price Changes: On July 11, 2025, the price of SMM 1 copper was 78,810 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan (0.14%) from the previous day. The SHFE price was 78,470 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan (0.06%). The LME price was 9,663 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars (- 0.20%) [6] - Inventory Changes: LME inventories increased by 1,578 tons (7.26%) to 23,307 tons, SHFE inventories increased by 625 tons (0.58%) to 108,725 tons, and COMEX inventories increased by 3,061 short tons (1.32%) to 234,204 short tons [6] 5. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 11, Antofagasta's CEO saw opportunities in US copper projects under the 50% tariff. Chile's mining minister said the government had no exact information on tariff implementation [7] - On July 11, data showed that Codelco's copper production in May increased by about 16.5% year - on - year to 13.01 tons, and BHP's Escondida mine production surged by about 24.4% to 13.2 tons, while Collahuasi's production decreased by 16.9% to 38,400 tons [7] - On July 11, it was reported that on July 9, Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025. Chile, supplying about 70% of US copper imports in 2024, is at the center of this trade storm [8] - On July 11, Canadian copper producer Hudbay Minerals temporarily stopped Snow Lake's operations due to wildfires [8] - In Q2 2025, Kamoa - Kakula's Phase I, II, and III concentrators processed 362 tons of ore, producing 11.2 tons of copper, a 11% year - on - year increase. The western area of the Kakula mine restarted mining in early June, and by mid - June, the mining capacity had reached 30 tons per month [9] 6. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventories [10][12][16]