Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the price of lithium carbonate shows a divergence between futures and spot markets. The spot market price may oscillate upwards due to the repair of downstream production scheduling expectations and some rigid demand. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the market may maintain a range - bound oscillation. The upside pressure comes from high inventory and continuous supply growth, while the downside support is from the seasonal stocking demand of the new energy industry chain and the rigid cost. There is a risk of short - term over - inflation in the futures market due to capital disturbances. The medium - term direction awaits a substantial increase in demand [4]. - The lithium carbonate price may maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. Whether it can continue to rise depends on the actual recovery of the demand side. If the demand recovery fails to meet expectations, the price may face pressure again [7]. Section Summaries 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Analysis - On July 11, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 64,280 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.16% from the previous day. The basis strengthened by 200 points to - 580 yuan/ton, and the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose by 300 yuan to 63,700 yuan/ton. The expected marginal improvement in supply and demand supported the spot price. - The position of the main contract decreased slightly by 0.25% to 322,860 lots, and the trading volume increased to 402,816 lots, indicating an increase in the activity of short - term capital games [2]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate slightly increased to 62%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous week. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained flat at 665 yuan/ton and 765 yuan/ton for a week. The cost pressure of upstream lithium mines has not been transmitted to the smelting end, and domestic production remains at a high level [3]. - Demand side: The retail and wholesale data of new energy vehicles increased by 21% and 31% year - on - year respectively, with a slight differentiation compared to last month. The marginal improvement momentum on the demand side was still insufficient. The prices of downstream cathode materials rose moderately, the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 80 yuan to 31,030 yuan/ton per week, and the cell price remained stable. Material manufacturers' inventory replenishment was mainly for rigid demand, and their procurement strategies were cautious [3]. - Inventory and warehouse receipts: The total inventory of lithium carbonate continued to accumulate, reaching 140,793 tons in the week of July 11, with the growth rate expanding to 1.77% [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On July 11, 2025, compared with July 10, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan to 64,280 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.16%. The basis strengthened by 200 yuan to - 580 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 25.64%. The position of the main contract decreased by 823 lots to 322,860 lots, with a change rate of - 0.25%. The trading volume of the main contract increased by 4,794 lots to 402,816 lots, with a change rate of 1.20%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 300 yuan to 63,700 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.47%. The market prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 500 yuan to 50,550 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 0.98%. The price of power - type ternary materials increased by 60 yuan to 115,155 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.05%. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 25 yuan to 31,055 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.08% [6]. - Compared with July 4, 2025, on July 11, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.00%, with a change rate of 0.32%. The inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 2,446 tons to 140,793 tons, with a change rate of 1.77%. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased by 0.01 yuan to 4.31 yuan/piece, with a change rate of 0.23%. The prices of 523 square ternary cells, 523 soft - pack ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells remained unchanged. The price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased by 0.01 yuan to 5.52 yuan/Ah, with a change rate of 0.18% [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Spot Market Quotations - On July 11, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 63,557 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,800 - 64,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 63,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,650 - 62,650 yuan/ton, with an average price of 62,150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to oscillate upwards, but the spot trading activity was low. Downstream material manufacturers had insufficient willingness to stock up and adopted a relatively cautious procurement strategy. The rigid demand of some downstream enterprises supported the price, and the improved production scheduling expectations of the new energy industry chain in July improved market sentiment. However, the supply - side pressure remained unrelieved, the production of lithium carbonate remained high, and the industry inventory was abundant, limiting the upside space of the price. The futures market showed an irrational rebound, deviating from the spot fundamentals, and there was a risk of short - term capital - driven fluctuations [7]. b. Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on July 10, from July 1 - 6, the retail volume of the new energy passenger vehicle market nationwide was 135,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 21% compared with the same period in July last year and a decrease of 11% compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail volume since the beginning of this year was 6.583 million units, a year - on - year increase of 37%. From July 1 - 6, the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 31% compared with the same period in July last year and a 0% increase compared with the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale volume since the beginning of this year was 5.594 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33% [8]. c. Industry News - On July 10, the SMM weekly review showed that the spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise. On the supply side, most enterprises maintained a bullish attitude and suspended quotations, while a small number of enterprises further raised their quotations. On the demand side, smelters faced difficulties such as inverted production costs and weak downstream demand. Most enterprises mainly consumed their own inventories, and some smelters with low inventories inquired in the market, but due to the large price difference between buyers and sellers, there were still few actual transactions. Affected by the extension policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the cobalt intermediates in China may face raw material shortages in the future, and the price has an upward driving force, but the impact of rising raw material prices on downstream demand needs to be noted [10]. - On July 4, Zangge Mining's wholly - owned subsidiary participated in the investment in a project. The Tibet Ali Mami Cuo Mining Development Co., Ltd., which is invested and controlled by the Jiangsu Zangqing New Energy Industry Development Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership), received the "Construction Project Construction Permit" for the "Mami Cuo Salt Lake Mining Area Lithium - Boron Ore Mining Project", which is beneficial to expanding the company's lithium salt production capacity from salt lakes, enhancing the company's core competitiveness and industry influence, and creating new profit growth points for the company [11]. - On July 3, the SMM weekly review showed that the spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise. A mining enterprise announced force majeure, further strengthening the bullish sentiment of mines and traders. Most enterprises still suspended quotations, and a small number of quoting enterprises further raised their quotations. Smelters faced difficulties such as inverted production costs and weak downstream demand, and most enterprises mainly consumed their own inventories. Some smelters with low inventories inquired in the market, but due to the large price difference between buyers and sellers, there were still few actual transactions. Affected by the extension policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the cobalt intermediates in China may face raw material shortages in the future, and the price has an upward driving force, but the impact of rising raw material prices on downstream demand needs to be noted [11].
碳酸锂日报：基差修复遇供给增压，碳酸锂延续震荡格局-20250714
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-14 13:11