华宝期货有色金属周报-20250714

Report Overview - Report Title: [Huabao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 14, 2025 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For aluminum, due to high macro uncertainty and slight inventory accumulation, prices are expected to move within a range in the short term, and future attention should be paid to news and downstream off - season conditions [11] - For zinc, supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - and long - term supply increases will put upward pressure; attention should be paid to news development [13] - For tin, prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but the downward pressure will increase in the medium term [14] Section Summaries 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - Futures and Spot Prices: From July 4 to July 11, 2025, copper futures (CU2508) decreased by 1.63%, aluminum futures (AL2508) increased by 0.29%, zinc futures (ZN2508) decreased by 0.13%, tin futures (SN2508) decreased by 1.24%, and nickel futures (NI2508) decreased by 0.72%. Spot copper prices decreased by 2.18%, aluminum by 0.05%, zinc by 1.75%, tin by 0.47%, and nickel by 1.05% [8] 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast - Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly. Trade tensions increased due to new tariffs, and there was a possibility of Fed rate - cuts. Nationally, the alumina operating rate decreased, and overseas, Guinea imposed shipping requirements on bauxite exports. Alumina inventory increased, and downstream demand was weak [10] - Viewpoint: Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term [11] - Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated within a range. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees were stable, and import fees increased. The zinc ingot import window remained closed. Downstream galvanizing开工率 increased, and zinc inventory rose [13] - Viewpoint: Supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - and long - term supply increases will put pressure [13] - Tin - Logic: Myanmar's supply progress was slower than expected, causing a shortage of raw materials for domestic smelters. Downstream demand showed signs of phased contraction [14] - Viewpoint: Slightly stronger in the short term, but downward pressure increases in the medium term [14] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite - Price: Domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton; low - grade at 570 yuan/ton. Imported bauxite index average price was 73.72 dollars/ton, down 0.58 dollars/ton [18] - Port Volume: Bauxite arrival volume was 420.49 million tons, up 8.74 million tons; departure volume was 429.2 million tons, up 18.94 million tons [21] - Alumina - Price and Profit: Domestic price in Henan was 3150 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; cost was 2844.4 yuan/ton, down 4.7 yuan/ton; profit in Shanxi was 225.05 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [24] - Electrolytic Aluminum - Cost and Spread: Total cost was 16571.68 yuan/ton, up 101.54 yuan/ton; regional spread (Foshan - SMM A00 aluminum) was - 10 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [26] - Downstream Processing:开工率 of aluminum cable, foil, plate, profile, primary and secondary aluminum alloy showed different changes [29][31] - Inventory: Various inventory data, including保税区, social, and exchange inventories, showed different trends [36][37] - Spot and Basis: Different basis data for SMM A00 aluminum and SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan changed [42][45] - Inter - month Spread: The spread between different months of Shanghai aluminum futures changed [46] Zinc - Zinc Concentrate - Price and Processing Fee: Domestic zinc concentrate price was 17088 yuan/metal ton, up 16 yuan/metal ton; domestic processing fee was 3800 yuan/metal ton, unchanged; import processing fee was 66.25 dollars/dry ton, up 1 dollar/dry ton [50] - Profit, Import Profit and Loss, and Inventory: Production profit was 4088 yuan/metal ton, up 16 yuan/metal ton; import loss was 864.57 yuan/ton, down 152.17 yuan/ton; import zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang was 80,000 physical tons, down 10,000 tons [55] - Refined Zinc - Inventory: Various inventory data, including social,保税区, and exchange inventories, showed different trends [58] - Galvanizing - Production,开工率, and Inventory: Production was 345,545 tons, up 19,495 tons;开工率 was 58.29%, up 1.81%; raw material inventory was 14,370 tons, up 1,110 tons; finished product inventory was 341,700 tons, up 9,300 tons [61] - Zinc Basis and Inter - month Spread: Different basis and spread data changed [64][68] Tin - Refined Tin - Production and开工率: Yunnan and Jiangxi's combined production was 0.262 million tons, up 0.05 million tons;开工率 was 54.07%, up 1.03% [72] - Tin Ingot - Inventory: SHFE tin ingot inventory was 7097 tons, down 101 tons; social inventory was 9644 tons, down 110 tons [75] - Tin Concentrate - Processing Fee: Processing fees in different regions remained unchanged but were lower year - on - year [77] - Import Profit and Loss: Import profit was 12005.23 yuan/ton, down 2059.74 yuan/ton [78] - Spot Price: Spot prices of tin concentrates in different regions decreased by 600 yuan/ton [82]