聚酯产业风险管理日报：供应端扰动，小幅反弹-20250714

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical impact of the current Israel - Iran conflict is gradually subsiding, and the price of ethylene glycol is now mainly driven by fundamentals. With weak demand, increasing supply and decreasing demand, the supply - demand balance of ethylene glycol turns weak. It maintains a tight balance in July and will enter a continuous inventory accumulation phase later. The upward drive from fundamentals is limited, relying more on supply - side accidents and cost disturbances driven by the macro - environment. The valuation is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the subsequent production reduction rhythm of the polyester sector [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - Price Range and Volatility: The monthly price range forecasts are 4000 - 4600 for ethylene glycol, 6400 - 7300 for PX, 4400 - 5300 for PTA, and 5700 - 6400 for bottle chips. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 17.22% for ethylene glycol, 24.12% for PX, 22.00% for PTA, and 17.82% for bottle chips. The current volatility historical percentiles (3 - year) are 36.2% for ethylene glycol, 76.9% for PX, 63.2% for PTA, and 56.0% for bottle chips [2]. - Polyester Hedging Strategies: - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory and concerns about ethylene glycol price drops, strategies include shorting ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4400 - 4500, buying put options (EG2509P4200) and selling call options (EG2509C4500) [2]. - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory and the need to lock in procurement costs, strategies include buying ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4200 - 4250, and selling put options (EG2509P4200) with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. Core Contradiction - The geopolitical impact of the Israel - Iran conflict fades, and ethylene glycol price is driven by fundamentals. Demand is weak, supply increases while demand decreases, resulting in a weakening supply - demand balance. It is in a tight balance in July and will enter an inventory accumulation phase. The upward drive from fundamentals is limited, relying on supply - side accidents and cost disturbances [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Inventory: The inventory at East China ports is 55.3 tons, a decrease of 2.7 tons from the previous period. With less arrivals this week, it is expected to decrease by 3 - 4 tons next week [4]. - Supply: Several ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with annual capacities of 45, 55, and 70 tons have reduced production or shut down, and the import volume in August is expected to shrink [4]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Not provided in the content Polyester Daily Data - Price and Spread: The prices of various polyester products and their spreads (such as TA1 - 5, EG5 - 9) have different daily and weekly changes. For example, Brent crude oil is at 70.6 dollars/barrel, with a daily change of 0.3 and a weekly change of 1.1 [7]. - Inventory: PTA, MEG, and PX have different inventory levels and changes in the number of warehouse receipts [7]. - Processing Margin: The processing margins of different products (such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread) also show various daily and weekly changes [7][8]. - Sales Rate: The sales rates of polyester products (such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber) have different degrees of change [8].