生猪周报：市场变动有限,价格小幅回落-20250714

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the pig market, covering price trends, supply and demand, and trading strategies [1][4] Group 2: Investment Ratings - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - Pig prices across China showed a downward trend this week due to improved supply after a previous price surge and weak price support [4] - Supply remains relatively tight as large - scale enterprises' output has not fully recovered, but it has improved compared to the previous period [4][9] - Demand is generally weak, with a decline in pig slaughter volume and an increase in frozen product inventory [4][10] - Futures prices are expected to have limited rebound space due to limited supply tightening [4] Group 4: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Pig prices are expected to be range - bound, and futures prices will have limited upward potential [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Mainly range - bound operation [5] - Arbitrage: LH91 positive spread [5] - Options: Wait and see [5] Group 5: Pig Price Situation - Pig prices across the country decreased this week. For example, in the Northeast, prices dropped by 0.35 - 0.5 yuan/kg to 14.38 - 14.5 yuan/kg [9] - Supply from large - scale enterprises has not fully recovered, but it has improved after a previous price rebound, leading to a slight price decline [9] Group 6: Changes in Slaughter and Consumption Slaughter Situation - Large - scale enterprises' output has not fully returned to normal, and the monthly output increase is limited [10] - Small - scale farmers' slaughter enthusiasm has increased, but the output remains low, and secondary fattening output has decreased [10] - Pig slaughter weight has increased slightly, and the supply of large - weight pigs is still tight [10] Consumption Situation - Pig market demand is generally weak, with a decline in slaughter volume and an increase in frozen product inventory [10] Group 7: Breeding Profits - Pig breeding profits continued to improve. As of the week of July 11, self - breeding and self - raising profit was 133.87 yuan/head, up 14.15 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 31.6 yuan/head, up 57.86 yuan/head [15] Group 8: Sow and Piglet Prices Piglets - The price of 7 - kg piglets rose to 439 yuan/head, up 8 yuan/head, and the price of 15 - kg piglets rose to 539 yuan/kg, up 12 yuan/head. Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing piglets has increased [19] Sows - The sow price remained flat at 1621 yuan/head. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs has decreased, and the market's enthusiasm for culling has increased, while the enthusiasm for replenishment is still low [19] Group 9: Reproductive Sow Inventory - In June, the reproductive sow inventory increased slightly according to both Yongyi and Ganglian data. Yongyi's comprehensive sample increased by 0.12% and large - scale enterprises by 0.22%, while Ganglian's data showed a 0.28% increase overall, with large - scale enterprises up 0.29% and small and medium - sized farmers up 0.17% [21]