供应压力大，需求弱势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium term, the prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) are bearish. In the short term, the commodity atmosphere is warm, and the prices of plastic PP are oscillating. After the macro - sentiment weakens, they are still regarded as bearish [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Comprehensive Analysis: In the third quarter, PP and PE still face significant production capacity release pressure, which eases in the fourth quarter. The expected new production capacity of standard - grade PE in the second half of the year is only 500,000 tons, with a reduced pressure compared to the first half. However, supply is not tightening as the high - level maintenance in the first half may lead to a rebound in the operation rate of existing facilities in the second half. Terminal demand is weak year - on - year, and there are no strong factors to reverse the weak demand, so there is a lack of upward momentum [3]. - Trading Strategies: - Unilateral Trading: In the medium term, prices are bearish. In the short term, due to the warm commodity atmosphere, plastic PP prices are oscillating and will turn bearish after the macro - sentiment weakens. - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines. - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Inventory: This week, both PE and PP inventories increased. PE total inventory rose by 34,000 tons to 1.054 million tons, and PP total inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 533,000 tons [6][8]. - Production Capacity Release: In the second half of the year, the estimated new PP production capacity is 3.15 million tons, and the new PE production capacity is 2.05 million tons for the 2509 contract and 800,000 tons for the 2601 contract. The release of linear low - density polyethylene (LL) production capacity slows down significantly in the second half of the year [9]. - Demand: The demand for PE and PP is still weak year - on - year. The PE pipe industry's operating rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 29% this week, and the BOPP and injection - molding industries of PP saw their operating rates drop by 1 percentage point to 58% and 44% respectively [12][13][14]. 3.3 PE Weekly Data Tracking - Prices and Spreads: The prices of various PE products and related raw materials showed different changes. For example, the Brent spot price increased by 2.5% week - on - week, and the oil - based PE profit increased by 8.5 [24]. - Sino - US PE Relationship: China is a net importer of PE. In 2024, the apparent demand for PE was 41.61 million tons, with an import volume of 13.85 million tons and an import dependence of 33%. The import volume from the US was 2.39 million tons, accounting for 17.2% of total imports and 5.7% of apparent demand [27]. - Profit: The profits of different production methods of PE, such as oil - based and coal - based, showed different trends. The oil - based PE profit increased by 8.5 week - on - week [24]. - Inventory: PE inventory increased this week, with the total inventory rising by 34,000 tons to 1.054 million tons [8]. - Production and Operation: The current PE operating load is 74.68%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous period [46]. - Import and Export: This week, the PE import market continued the situation of weak supply and demand. The supply of import offers and quotas remained low, and the demand was weak, resulting in a light trading atmosphere [55]. 3.4 PP Weekly Data Tracking - Prices and Spreads: The prices of various PP products and related raw materials also changed. For example, the Brent spot price increased by 2.48% week - on - week, and the PP CFR China price remained unchanged [66]. - Sino - US PP Relationship: China is a net importer of PP. In 2024, the apparent demand for PP was 39.37 million tons, with an import volume of 367,000 tons and an import proportion of 9%. The import volume from the US was 39,400 tons, accounting for 1.07% of total imports and 0.1% of apparent demand. The cost - end propane of PP has a high dependence on the US [69]. - Profit: The profits of different production methods of PP, such as oil - based, CTP, and PDH, showed different trends. The oil - based PP profit increased by 58 [66]. - Inventory: PP inventory increased this week, with the total inventory rising by 18,000 tons to 533,000 tons [8]. - Production and Operation: This week, the operating load rate of domestic PP plants was 77.42%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week and 3.76 percentage points from the same period last year [87]. - Import and Export: In terms of imports, overseas suppliers were cautious, and the offers were few and higher than the domestic market level, resulting in few transactions. In terms of exports, due to sufficient supply from the Middle East and emerging regions, China's PP exports had difficulty in getting large - volume orders [94][96].