粕类日报：供应不确定增加，盘面偏强运行-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean meal futures showed some support, but today's upward movement was mainly due to the uncertainty of long - term supply rather than its own factors. The US soybean futures declined due to the bearish monthly supply - demand report, but the deep - decline space was limited, and the rebound space was also restricted by Brazil's export pressure and good weather in US production areas. - The fundamental situation of rapeseed meal has changed little recently, mainly affected by the uncertainty of future supply. It is expected that it will be difficult to show a significantly strong trend, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to widen. - The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures may face some pressure, but the deep - decline space is limited [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean futures showed a strong upward trend. After the bearish monthly supply - demand report, the futures rebounded. The domestic soybean meal futures were driven by the US soybean futures and market information. The domestic rapeseed meal futures rebounded significantly due to the uncertainty of long - term supply. - The inter - monthly spreads of domestic soybean meal futures strengthened slightly, and those of rapeseed meal futures strengthened significantly. However, due to the uncertainty of market news, the possibility of further strengthening is uncertain [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Market - The adjustment of the new US soybean balance sheet was bearish. Exports were lowered, but crushing was raised, and the ending stocks increased slightly. As of the week ending July 6, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 66%. As of the week ending July 3, the export inspection volume of old US soybeans was 389,400 tons. The US soybean crushing data in May was good, with a crushing volume of 192.829 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 1.37%, and the crushing profit rebounded. - Brazilian farmers' selling progress was slow, and the overall selling progress was at a low level in the same period of history. The recent selling progress continued to slow down, and price pressure began to appear. The recent crushing volume in Brazil decreased, and the crushing profit was relatively low. It is expected that Brazil may further increase exports. - Argentina's domestic crushing volume may improve, but soybean exports may increase. The international soybean supply pressure is mainly concentrated in South America [5]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal spot market was relatively loose. The oil refinery operating rate increased, and inventories gradually accumulated. As of July 11, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 2.2954 million tons, the operating rate was 64.52%, the soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 210,900 tons (3.31%) and a year - on - year increase of 661,400 tons (11.18%). The soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 63,800 tons (7.76%) and a year - on - year decrease of 333,100 tons (27.32%). - The domestic rapeseed meal demand has gradually weakened recently. Although the refinery operating rate has decreased, the overall supply is sufficient, and there is still supply pressure. As of the week ending July 14, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil refineries was 37,000 tons, and the operating rate this week was 9.86%. The rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil refineries was 146,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 15,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,500 tons [6]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The China - US negotiations in London have ended, but the market has not received clear information. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market is still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. Although the overall international trade situation has many uncertain factors, the macro - disturbances are decreasing as the market stabilizes. In the short term, it is not easy for China's long - term soybean demand for the US market to decline significantly [7]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended that investors with existing long positions should exit and wait and see. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to exit the M91 long - spread position and wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [8]