关税波澜再起，贵金属维持强势

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Amid the approaching end of the tariff negotiation period, the Trump administration's tariff announcements have reignited market risk aversion, and dovish remarks from Fed officials have raised expectations of a September rate cut, supporting precious metals. Despite short - term market sentiment fluctuations, the substantial increase in US tariffs, along with potential deepening of debt and deficit issues, suggest that precious metals will maintain a high - level oscillatory trend [3][7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - During the week, the US dollar index rebounded slightly from the bottom, while precious metals showed strong resilience. London gold traded between $3280 - $3370 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 0.53%. London silver broke through the previous high set in mid - June, reaching a new high since 2012 at $38.53, trading between $36 - $38.5, with a weekly gain of 4%. Affected by external markets and exchange rates, Shanghai gold traded between 765 - 777 yuan, with a weekly loss of 0.45%, and Shanghai silver traded between 8840 - 9120 yuan, with a weekly gain of 1.36% [3]. - The main trading theme this week was US - centric tariff policies. The 3 - month reciprocal tariff negotiation period is almost over, and the Trump administration has announced a 50% tariff on copper and a 30% tariff on Mexico, the EU, etc. The signing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill is likely to deepen US debt and deficit problems, reigniting market risk aversion. Additionally, dovish remarks from Fed officials have slightly increased market expectations of a September rate cut, allowing silver prices to break through [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Buy gold on dips and hold long silver positions based on the 5 - day moving average. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [9]. Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking US Economy - GDP Slowdown and Deteriorating Consumption Expectations - In 2024, the annual GDP reached 2.8%, better than expected. The consumption sector, accounting for two - thirds of the economy, continuously drove GDP growth, with the service industry making the most significant positive contribution, and the investment sector also supporting the economy [20]. - In Q1 2025, the economy slowed down due to tariff factors, recording - 0.3%, worse than the expected - 0.2%, mainly reflecting increased imports and reduced government spending (an 8% decline in defense spending) [21]. - Recent data shows that US residents are more pessimistic about the future economy. The US retail sales month - on - month rate in May was - 0.9%, worse than the expected - 0.1%. The preliminary one - year inflation rate expectation in June was 5.1%, lower than the expected 6.4%, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in June was 60.5, better than the expected 53.5 [22][23]. US Economy - Divergence of Two PMI Indicators in a Turbulent Background - The final Markit manufacturing PMI in the US in June was 52, slightly lower than the expected 52.2. The S&P Global services PMI was 53.7, better than the expected 53.1. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8, better than the expected 50.5, and the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49 [25]. US Economy - Employment - The seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in June were 147,000, better than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The average hourly wage annual rate was 3.7%, slightly lower than the expected 3.9%. Employment data has shown that the US job market is temporarily stable, and the unexpected decline in the unemployment rate has slightly adjusted market expectations of a Fed rate cut [33]. Macroeconomic Factors - Inflation - The US unadjusted CPI annual rate in May was 2.4%, slightly lower than the expected 2.5%. The unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.8%, slightly lower than the expected 2.9%. The seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%, and the seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3%. This set of CPI data showed a moderate decline, approaching the Fed's target, but the market still worried about the impact of tariff frictions, and expectations of a Fed rate cut remained stable after the data release [39]. Chapter 3: Precious Metal Fundamental Data Tracking ETF and CFTC Positions No specific analysis of the data in the text, only the presentation of relevant charts. Gold - Supply and Demand - In 2024, the total global gold supply increased slightly by 1% year - on - year to 4974 tons, with mine production at 3661 tons (basically flat year - on - year) and recycled gold at 1370 tons (up 11% year - on - year). The total gold demand was 4554 tons, up 1% year - on - year, with investment demand growing by 25% to 1180 tons, a four - year high. Gold consumption in technology increased by 21 tons (+7%), while gold jewelry consumption hit a record low at 1877 tons, down 9% year - on - year. Global central banks bought 1044.6 tons of gold in 2024, exceeding 1000 tons for the third consecutive year [45]. - For 2025, the World Gold Council predicts that gold supply will increase again. Investment in gold ETFs, over - the - counter trading, and futures will be favored. Central banks may buy over 1000 tons of gold again. Gold jewelry demand may be pressured, while technology - related gold demand should remain stable [45]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Since 2022, global central banks have been on a gold - buying spree, with purchases reaching 1082 tons in 2022, 1037 tons in 2023, and 1045 tons in 2024. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India have been active buyers [54]. - In Q3 2024, central bank gold - buying activities slowed down to 186 tons, but in Q4, global central banks bought 333 tons of gold, a 54% year - on - year and 79% quarter - on - quarter increase. China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for five consecutive months since November 2024 [57]. Silver - Global Supply and Demand Balance - In 2024, the global silver supply was 31573 tons, up 2% year - on - year, and the global demand was 36208 tons, down 3% from the previous year. The demand mainly included 21166 tons of industrial silver (6146 tons of photovoltaic silver), 6491 tons of silver jewelry, 1686 tons of silverware, and 5938 tons of investment. The supply - demand gap was 4634 tons [59]. - For 2025, the World Silver Association expects the supply to continue growing by 2% to 32055 tons. Industrial silver demand is expected to change little, with photovoltaic silver remaining at around 6000 tons. The supply - demand gap is expected to narrow to 3658 tons [59]. Silver Inventory - The total visible silver inventory of major global exchanges, including LBMA, Comex, SHFE, and SGE, has rebounded from the historical low. Traders are moving silver from London due to concerns about US tariffs on silver [65].