银河期货油脂日报-20250714

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations. For palm oil, it is advisable to consider buying on dips; for P9 - 1 and P1 - 5, consider expanding spreads on dips; for options, maintain a wait - and - see stance [11] Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of soybean oil 2509 was 7994 with an increase of 8, palm oil 2509 was 8748 with an increase of 66, and rapeseed oil 2509 was 9424 with a decrease of 15. The basis for different regions and varieties had various changes, with some remaining stable and some having slight fluctuations [3] - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: The 9 - 1 monthly spread of soybean oil was 34 with an increase of 14, palm oil was 30 with a decrease of 4, and rapeseed oil was 81 with an increase of 15 [3] - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 09 - contract Y - P spread was - 754 with a decrease of 58, OI - Y was 1430, and OI - P was 676 with a decrease of 81. The oil - meal ratio was 2.67 with a decrease of 0.01 [3] - Import Profits: The 8 - month shipping date of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a profit of - 181, and the 8 - month shipping date of FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was 1013 with a profit of - 642 [3] - Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories (Week 27, 2025): The soybean oil inventory was 53.8 tons this week (last week was 53.7 tons, last year was 102.0 tons), palm oil was 51.6 tons, and rapeseed oil was 71.9 tons (last week was 74.7 tons, last year was 39.9 tons) [3] Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - International Market: In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60% month - on - month to 955683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% to 359504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% to 216141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports were 1549825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [5] - Domestic Market (P/Y/OI): - Palm Oil: As of July 11, 2025 (Week 28), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 56.3 tons, a 5.21% increase from last week. The origin's quotation was stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate, and it was advisable to consider buying on dips [5] - Soybean Oil: As of July 11, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 104.94 tons, a 2.91% increase from last week. The short - term price was expected to maintain fluctuations due to inventory accumulation [6] - Rapeseed Oil: As of July 4, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 71.9 tons, a 2.8 - ton decrease from last week. The European rapeseed oil FOB price was around 1020 US dollars, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The short - term price was expected to have large - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchase and policy changes [10] Third Part: Trading Strategy - Single - Side: Short - term, the oil market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [11] - Arbitrage: Consider expanding the spreads of P9 - 1 and P1 - 5 on dips [11] - Options: Maintain a wait - and - see stance [11] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, as well as monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oil varieties, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][17]