Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall Black Market: The rebound is expected to continue, but it is advisable to short at high prices. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot and futures markets are strengthening jointly. Short - term price fluctuations after a rapid rebound should be noted. Key factors to watch include coal production data, the sustainability of high daily iron - water production at steel mills, and changes in imported coal customs clearance [10]. - Ferroalloys: The prices of ferroalloys are expected to follow the trend of the black market. The supply - demand pattern remains relatively loose. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Week - on - Week Market Review - Futures and Spot Prices: From July 4th to July 11th, the prices of most black futures and spot products increased. For example, the futures price of rebar (RB2510) rose from 3072 to 3133, a 1.99% increase; the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai rose from 3170 to 3220, a 1.58% increase [7]. 02 This Week's Black Market Forecast - Rebar and Other Products: Last week, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased. The price increase was mainly due to the news of production restrictions in Shanxi. Although it is still the off - season for demand, the rebound may continue, but shorting at high prices is recommended [9]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The market sentiment is warming up, and the prices are rising. The supply - demand mismatch in coking coal has not been effectively resolved. Coke prices are rising due to increased coking coal costs. Attention should be paid to coal production, steel mill production, and imported coal customs clearance [10]. - Ferroalloys: Overseas tariff policies and domestic supply - side news affect the market. The supply of silicomanganese is slightly expanding, while that of ferrosilicon is slightly decreasing. Demand is weakening, and prices are expected to follow the black market [11]. 03 Variety Data - Finished Products - Rebar: Last week, the production was 216.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.42 million tons; the apparent demand was 221.50 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.37 million tons. The total inventory was 540.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.84 million tons [13][20]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Last week, the production was 323.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.00 million tons; the apparent demand was 322.51 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.86 million tons. The total inventory was 345.56 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.63 million tons [28][31]. - Coking Coal and Coke - Coke: The total inventory last week was 930.98 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.26 million tons. The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 63 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan [50][66]. - Coking Coal: The total inventory last week was 2571.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.56 million tons. The daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 76.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 million tons [57][67]. - Ferroalloys - Silicomanganese: The weekly production of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises last week was 182,280 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,170 tons. The inventory on July 11th was 220,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons [90][98]. - Ferrosilicon: The weekly production of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises last week was 98,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons. The inventory on July 11th was 70,240 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,240 tons [92][98].
华宝期货黑色产业链周报-20250714
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-07-14 13:58