PACIFIC SECURITIES(SH:601099) Tai Ping Yang Zheng Quan·2025-07-14 14:15Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates that the bond market is expected to experience high volatility while the stock market is anticipated to continue its upward trend, driven by the ongoing trade war resolution and expectations of inflation stabilization due to anti-involution policies [3][13]. - The A-share market has shown signs of a bull market, with major indices breaking out of their previous trading ranges, although trading volumes have decreased, indicating some market divergence [4][16]. - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market is likely to see a return to a narrative of exceptionalism, with trade negotiations expected to conclude in the third quarter, supporting upward trends in both the U.S. stock market and the dollar [21][22]. Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The A-share market's trading volume was 1.46 trillion yuan, down 253.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day, suggesting a slow bull market characterized by gradual price increases rather than sharp rises [4][16]. - Key sectors to watch include those benefiting from anti-involution policies, such as photovoltaic, live pig, and glass industries, which are showing signs of recovery from historical lows [17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring oil prices, trading volumes, and the exchange rate of the yuan as indicators for potential market trends [4][16][17]. Group 3: Commodity Market Analysis - The Wenhua Commodity Index has risen by 0.3%, indicating a completed bottom breakout, with a strong performance in domestic pricing sectors such as construction materials, coal, and ferroalloys [6][39]. - The report suggests that investors should focus on long positions in commodities related to anti-involution themes, as the upward trend in these sectors is expected to continue [39][41]. - The report advises caution in the oil market due to unpredictable geopolitical factors, recommending that investors who have not yet participated should observe and manage risks [6][39]. Group 4: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The report notes that the social financing scale in China reached 430.22 trillion yuan by the end of June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9%, indicating robust government debt growth [42]. - The People's Bank of China is expected to continue supporting technological innovation and consumption through structural monetary policy tools, which will enhance the effectiveness of economic transformation [42]. - The report highlights the importance of industry self-discipline in the coal sector to balance supply and demand, particularly in light of recent market dynamics [43].