粕类周报：粕类周报市场变动有限,盘面偏强运行-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand situation of US soybeans is expected to be relatively loose, but the decline in the US soybean market may be limited due to good new - crop demand [3]. - The high prices in South America reflect optimistic expectations for future demand, but the Brazilian market may face pressure due to the weakening of the real exchange rate [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market is running strongly due to concerns about future supply, while the spot market is relatively loose, and inventory pressure may continue to be reflected [3]. - The rapeseed meal futures market is running strongly due to concerns about spot supply shortages, but the continuous upward space is relatively limited because of high granular rapeseed meal inventory and average cost - effectiveness [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - US soybean futures prices are generally weak this week. The focus is on the good condition of new US soybean crops and potential negatives from the monthly supply - demand report. The overall supply - demand is expected to be loose, but the decline may be limited due to good new - crop demand. South American prices remain high, but there may be pressure due to the weakening real exchange rate [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market is strong, reflecting concerns about future supply, while the spot market is relatively loose. Oil mill operating rates are high, and soybean meal提货 has declined, so inventory pressure will continue to be reflected. Spot trading is good, but basis trading is average [3]. - The rapeseed meal futures market is strong due to concerns about spot supply shortages, but the continuous upward space is limited because of high granular rapeseed meal inventory and average cost - effectiveness. Information on imported rapeseed mainly affects the far - month market [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to buy at low points [5]. - Arbitrage: M91 positive spread [5]. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Good Growth of New US Soybean Crops, Overall Loose Supply - Demand - This week, the US soybean futures market declined. Good weather in US production areas, slow export progress, and concerns about negative reports are the main factors. As of the week of July 6, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 66%, higher than the 5 - year average of 62.4%. Old - crop sales are good, but new - crop sales are slow. The monthly supply - demand report is relatively negative, but the decline may be limited because the pressure on new - crop ending stocks is not obvious [9]. 3.2.2 High South American Prices, Supply Pressure Remains - Although US soybean prices declined this week, Brazilian prices remain strong. Domestic soybean meal prices are strong, and US soybean price declines have improved domestic crushing margins to some extent, but they are still relatively low. Brazilian export markets are loose, and high prices may reflect optimistic expectations for future exports. Brazilian domestic crushing demand may be supported by biodiesel benefits, but there may be pressure due to the weakening real. Argentine near - month shipping quotes are firm, and far - month quotes have declined, and export pressure may decrease due to tariff adjustments [12]. 3.2.3 Supply Pressure Emerges, Phased Rebound in the Futures Market - Domestic soybean meal futures prices are oscillating strongly this week. Although US soybean prices have declined, Brazilian prices are firm, domestic crushing margins have improved, and concerns about future supply support the domestic market. Oil mill operating rates are still high, soybean arrivals are increasing, and inventory pressure is increasing. Sales are good, and the futures market may be supported as the decline in cost is limited [15]. 3.2.4 Low Rapeseed Meal Inventory, Strong Futures Market - Domestic rapeseed meal futures prices are strong this week, stronger than soybean meal. Spot supply shortages are evident. Domestic rapeseed and crushed rapeseed meal inventories are low, and oil mill operating rates have decreased, tightening supply. The cost - effectiveness of rapeseed meal has improved slightly, but the high granular rapeseed meal inventory limits the upward space. Information on imported rapeseed mainly affects the far - month market [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes 3.3.1 International Market - Data on US soybean weekly sales, export inspections, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit are presented, as well as data on Brazilian and Argentine monthly export volume and monthly crushing volume [21][23]. 3.3.2 Foreign Premiums - Data on FOB premiums for US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as CNF premiums for rapeseed are shown [25]. 3.3.3 Macro: Exchange Rates and International Shipping - Exchange rate data for USD/CNH, USD/BRL, and USD/ARS are provided, along with Panama - class cargo ship freight prices for different routes and their changes [30][32]. 3.3.4 Supply - Data on soybean and rapeseed import volume and crushing volume are presented [39]. 3.3.5 Demand - Data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal提货 volume are provided [41]. 3.3.6 Inventory - Data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventory are shown [44].