聚酯产业链期货周报-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry is currently in a situation where demand is weak during the off - season, and downstream negative feedback is continuously transmitted to the upstream market, suppressing the prices of polyester products [6]. - Different products in the polyester industry chain have different supply - demand and price trends. For example, PX supply is still tight in the short term and is expected to oscillate with the cost side; PTA supply is expected to increase, and its processing fee is significantly compressed; MEG has an inventory accumulation expectation in August - September; short - fiber processing fees are expected to be strongly supported; and bottle - chip processing fees are also relatively strong [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies | Product | Logic Analysis | Trading Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | PX&PTA | PX supply is still tight, with the Vietnamese NSRP 700,000 - ton PX device gradually resuming and the Thai THAI OIL 530,000 - ton PX device shut down for maintenance. PTA supply is expected to increase with device restarts and new installations. Downstream polyester and terminal operations are declining. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Long PX and short PTA; Option: Wait and see [4] | | MEG | Domestic and foreign devices are restarting, and the port inventory is currently low but has an inventory accumulation expectation in August - September. The downstream load is decreasing, but there is short - term market support due to the rebound in coal prices. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [4] | | PF | Short - fiber processing differentials are continuously widening, production and sales are average, and there are still production reduction plans in July. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Short PTA and long PF; Option: Wait and see [4] | | PR | Bottle - chip processing fees are strengthening, and production reduction measures are gradually being implemented. | Unilateral: Oscillatory consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [4] | 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Polyester Load and Terminal Operations: As of Friday, the polyester load was 88.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing and weaving operations decreased by 7% and 4% respectively, and the dyeing operation remained at 67%. The fabric orders were weak, and terminal production reduction was accelerating [6]. - Product - Specific Situations: - PX: Domestic PX load remained basically stable, with a slight increase to 81.3% as of Friday. Overseas load decreased slightly. Long - process device profits narrowed, and short - process device profits fluctuated slightly [16]. - PTA: Social inventory increased slightly, and the basis and the September - January spread weakened significantly. Supply is expected to increase, and processing differentials have weakened to the lowest point of the year [18][20]. - MEG: Port inventory rebounded, supply increased, the basis weakened, and the September - January spread strengthened. Domestic and foreign device loads increased, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in August - September [22][25]. - Polyester Products: Long - filament inventory accumulated, short - fiber profits expanded but downstream operations declined, and bottle - chip processing fees strengthened with production reduction measures being implemented [8][10][12]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - PX: - Price: The report presents the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, and Brent crude oil, etc. [34]. - Spread and Profit: It includes various spreads such as PX - Brent, PX - naphtha, and PX - MX, as well as theoretical profits [36][38]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic and overseas PX loads and the relationship between PX and PTA loads are shown [63][64]. - PTA: - Profit: It includes profits such as PTA's profit from crude oil, naphtha, and PX [74][75]. - Supply and Demand: PTA and polyester loads are presented [77]. - Inventory: PTA social inventory, polyester factory raw material inventory, PTA factory raw material inventory, and PTA warehouse receipts are included [79]. - MEG: - Price: It shows the prices of ethylene glycol spot, coal, methanol, and ethylene [81]. - Spread: It includes various spreads such as domestic and foreign spreads, regional spreads, and EO - 1.4EG spread [83]. - Profit: It includes profits from oil - based, MTO, ethylene monomer, and coal - based production of ethylene glycol [94][96]. - Polyester: - Profit: It includes the average profit of long - filaments, short - fiber profit, polyester weighted profit, bottle - chip processing profit, and slice profit [99]. - Supply: It shows the loads of polyester, bottle - chips, long - filaments, and short - fibers, as well as inventory days [101][102]. - Demand: It includes the loads and inventories of pure - polyester yarn, polyester - cotton yarn, and fabric, as well as export data and domestic consumption data [105][108][109].