镍、不锈钢：宏观扰动偏多，延续震荡走势

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel continued to fluctuate. Fundamentally, the arrival inventory from the Philippines increased, leading to a loosening of nickel ore support. News such as the low actual output of nickel ore quotas further deepened the expectation of a loose supply. The intraday transaction price of ferronickel decreased to some extent, mainly affected by weak downstream demand and cost loosening, and is currently close to the conversion spread of high - grade nickel matte. Stainless steel continued to fluctuate intraday, with no obvious improvement in fundamentals and limited room for further upward movement. The new energy link still maintains a production - based - on - sales situation. In the future, attention should be mainly paid to the game between Indonesia and the United States on tariffs, which increases the sentiment disturbance in the downstream of the nickel industry chain, and the trend of new energy tariff exemptions between the EU and Indonesia [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Nickel Forecast and Management Strategy - Price Range Forecast: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - Inventory Management: When the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory depreciation, short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a short - selling ratio of 60% for the Shanghai nickel main contract; sell call options, with a short - selling ratio of 50% for over - the - counter/on - exchange options [2] - Procurement Management: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs; sell put options; buy out - of - the - money call options, with the trading volume based on the procurement plan [2] Market Data - Nickel Disk Daily: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 290 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume is 80,732 lots, a decrease of 21,189 lots (- 20.79%); the open interest is 59,940 lots, a decrease of 1,587 lots (- 2.58%); the warehouse receipt volume is 21,296 tons, an increase of 854 tons (4.18%); the basis of the main contract is - 1,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,430 yuan (- 56.8%) [5] - Stainless Steel Disk Daily: The latest price of the stainless steel main - continuous contract is 12,715 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume is 92,687 lots, a decrease of 63,358 lots (- 40.60%); the open interest is 66,494 lots, a decrease of 11,562 lots (- 14.81%); the warehouse receipt volume is 111,051 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the basis of the main contract is 360 yuan/ton, an increase of 155 yuan (75.61%) [6] - Nickel Industry Inventory: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,173 tons, an increase of 1,144 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 206,580 tons, an increase of 402 tons; the stainless steel social inventory is 990.8 tons, an increase of 12.8 tons; the nickel pig iron inventory is 37,534 tons, an increase of 2,924 tons [7] Market Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The cobalt mine ban in the Congo continues; Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons; Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the tariff negotiation between Indonesia and the United States may involve the subsequent trend of the nickel industry chain [4] - Negative Factors: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow; the contradiction in the ferronickel industry chain deepens, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [4]