尿素周报：宏观及出口预期扰动较强-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price showed a strong upward trend. Recently, urea enterprises had a mix of device maintenance and复产, and the supply was expected to decline in the short - term and then recover. On the demand side, there was an expected marginal weakening of agricultural top - dressing demand. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased slightly, and the start - up was expected to gradually recover from a low level after the second half of the month, with finished product inventory still in the process of de - stocking. Regarding exports, export expectations were frequently disturbed recently, and the domestic - foreign price difference remained high. The domestic urea port inventory had increased to 48.9 tons month - on - month. Overall, agricultural demand replenishment and export release drove the continuous de - stocking of urea enterprise inventory. Macro and export expectations strongly disturbed the futures market. In the short term, the urea futures price might continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The upper resistance level of the UR2509 contract was around 1,780 - 1,800 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint Summary - Supply: Device maintenance and复产 coexisted, and supply was expected to decline in the short - term and then recover [4]. - Demand: Attention should be paid to the pre - sales and start - up of autumn fertilizers. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased slightly, and the start - up of melamine decreased [4][34]. - Inventory: Port inventory continued to increase, and the inventory pressure of urea enterprises eased. Urea enterprise inventory was 96.77 tons (month - on - month decrease of 5.08 tons), port inventory was 48.9 tons (month - on - month increase of 4.9 tons), and the mainstream pre - sales days of urea enterprises were 5.94 days (month - on - month increase of 10.82%) [4][31]. - Cost and Profit: Coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and urea profits increased month - on - month [4]. - Basis and Spread: The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the 09 basis changed little [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - Domestic Urea Market Price: The domestic urea market price showed a strong upward trend this week [6]. - International Urea Price: International urea prices increased significantly [10]. - Supply: The weekly urea production was 138.18 tons (+1.12%), including 107.23 tons of coal - based urea production (+0.21%) and 30.95 tons of gas - based urea production (+4.42%), with an average daily output of 19.7 tons. Some enterprises had planned maintenance [16][20][24]. - Inventory: As mentioned above, port inventory increased and enterprise inventory decreased [27][31]. - Demand: The start - up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 29.83% (+0.58%), and the finished product inventory was 67.26 tons (month - on - month increase of 0.62 tons). The start - up rate of melamine was 62.56% (-0.22%) [34]. - Raw Material End: Coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend [36]. - Profit: The production profit of urea fixed - bed and water - coal slurry devices was analyzed, and the profit increased month - on - month [42][43]. - Spread Analysis: The 9 - 1 spread fluctuated strongly, and the 09 basis changed little [45]. - Urea - related Product Spread: The spreads between urea and related products such as liquid ammonia and ammonium chloride were analyzed [54].