资产配置日报：迟到的暖意-20250714

Domestic Market Performance - The equity market experienced a slight upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to close at 3519.65, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.07% to 4017.67 [1][2] - The bond market showed a weak trend with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.06 basis points to 1.67% and the 30-year bond yield decreasing by 0.1 basis points to 1.88% [2][7] Overseas Market Influences - The overseas market was affected by tariff policies, with copper prices under pressure due to a 30% tariff announced by the US on the EU and Mexico, while oil prices rose approximately 1.5% due to positive signals from OPEC+ regarding strong demand in Q3 [3] Domestic Commodity Trends - The "anti-involution" policy led to a cooling in trading, with black commodities continuing to rise but at a reduced rate. Coking coal and coke prices increased by 1.15% and 1.09% respectively, while iron ore and rebar saw smaller gains between 0.1% and 0.3% [4] - The photovoltaic industry chain continued to rise, with polysilicon and industrial silicon prices increasing by 0.81% and 3.27% respectively [4] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank increased reverse repos to support liquidity, with a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan on a single day, although funding rates continued to rise due to the approaching tax period [5][6] - The central bank's announcement of a 1.4 trillion yuan buyout repo operation indicated a commitment to maintaining liquidity despite the tightening conditions [6] Equity Market Dynamics - The overall A-share market rose by 0.17% with a trading volume of 1.48 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors as they awaited clearer market narratives [8] - Bank stocks exhibited volatility, with potential fluctuations expected around upcoming equity registration dates [9] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.26% and 0.67% respectively, with significant inflows into stocks like Meituan and Alibaba, suggesting a potential rebound in the market [10]