6月外贸数据点评：“抢出口”角色在改变

Export Data - In June, exports (in USD) increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.6% and the previous value of 4.8%[7] - The rise in exports was primarily due to a shift in the "export grabbing" focus from emerging markets to the United States[2] - Exports to the US surged by 18.4% compared to a decline of 16.0% in the previous month, indicating a significant recovery[2] Import Data - Imports (in USD) rose by 1.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected -0.6% and the previous value of -3.4%[7] - The increase in imports was mainly driven by a rebound in bulk commodity imports, including iron ore (+12.4% to 8.5%) and crude oil (+8.2% to 7.4%)[5] Market Trends - The "export grabbing" phenomenon towards emerging countries is nearing its end, while the trend towards the US is gaining momentum[2] - The export growth to emerging markets, particularly Latin America and India, continued to decline, with exports to Latin America dropping by 4.5 percentage points to -2.0%[2] - The export of midstream manufacturing goods to emerging economies decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 5.7%[3] Future Outlook - Exports are expected to maintain resilience in July due to continued "export grabbing" towards the US, but this may end in August, leading to potential negative impacts from demand exhaustion[3] - Key indicators for future export performance include a continued rise in processing trade imports and high prices for Yiwu small commodities[3]