短期市场情绪主导，基本面转弱无向上驱动

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For silicon - manganese, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment, with prices oscillating strongly. However, the supply - demand situation will gradually return to a loose state, and the medium - term price may face downward pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5500, 6000] [3][4]. - For silicon - iron, the short - term market is also sentiment - driven, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. The market is expected to operate within a range, with the reference range for the main contract being [5300, 5750] [49][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon - Manganese - Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: National production and operating rates continued to rise, with more restarts in Yunnan. The overall supply is at a high level for the same period [3][10]. - Demand: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 239.81 tons, but the absolute level is still high, providing rigid support for silicon - manganese demand. The procurement volume of the iconic steel mill in July increased, but the price - pressing sentiment remains [3][16]. - Inventory: The alloy factory inventory decreased slightly, while the delivery inventory continued to decline but remains at an absolute high level [3]. - Cost - Profit: Manganese ore prices showed a split, with oxide ore prices falling and semi - carbonate ore prices rising slightly. The actual transaction of manganese ore was average. Power costs in multiple production areas decreased, reducing the loss degree but the whole production area is still in a loss state [3]. - Market Review - Spot market: Spot prices in the main production areas rose by 30 - 80 yuan/ton [7][9]. - Supply: Production continued to rise, with stable operations in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia and more restarts in Yunnan [10][11]. - Demand: Hot - metal output and rebar production decreased [12][16]. - Hebei Steel's tender: The inquiry price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous round, and the procurement volume increased by 2900 tons [19]. - Inventory: The alloy factory inventory decreased by 0.15 tons week - on - week [20]. - Cost - Profit: The loss degree in the production area was reduced compared with last week [22]. - Manganese ore price: Port manganese ore prices decreased slightly [26][27]. - Manganese ore shipment data: The shipment and arrival volume continued to rise, and the port clearance volume declined from a high level [32]. - Manganese ore port inventory: Port inventory remained at a low level, with the national port inventory increasing by 2.6 tons and Tianjin Port inventory increasing by 3.5 tons [34][36]. - Manganese ore manufacturer inventory: The average available days of manganese ore inventory increased in most areas [38]. - Other costs: Electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas [39][40]. Silicon - Iron - Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: National production and operating rates decreased slightly, with restarts and shutdowns in different areas. The overall operation in Ningxia was relatively stable [49]. - Demand: Steel mills' new round of tenders has started, and the procurement volume of the iconic steel mill increased. Non - steel demand for magnesium ingot production decreased in June, and the export volume from January to May decreased by 14.17% compared with the same period last year [49]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased by 0.32 tons week - on - week, and the delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 9.9 tons [49]. - Cost - Profit: The semi - coke market was weakly stable, and electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas, reducing the loss degree in some areas [49]. - Market Review - Spot price: Spot prices in the main production areas rose by different degrees [53][55]. - Supply: National production and operating rates decreased slightly [56][57]. - Steel demand: The weekly demand for silicon - iron decreased [60]. - Hebei Steel's tender: The procurement volume increased by 500 tons compared with June [63]. - Non - steel demand: Magnesium ingot production decreased in June, and the silicon - iron export volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [64][66]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased by 0.32 tons week - on - week [67]. - Cost - Profit: The loss degree in some production areas was reduced compared with last week [69]. - Other costs: Electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas [71].