Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In early 2025, soda ash futures and spot prices rebounded slightly with commodities. However, due to increased soda ash production capacity, decreased float and photovoltaic glass production, and lower coal prices, the supply - demand situation worsened, and soda ash prices declined. The futures price of the main contract dropped nearly 30%, and the spot price fell 19%. Recently, driven by the "anti - involution" policy, the soda ash futures price rebounded about 8.5% from the low, but the spot price remained stable and weak [2][8]. - In the first half of 2025, although the soda ash industry added 2.4 million tons of new production capacity, due to poor profitability, some enterprises carried out early maintenance in February and May, resulting in a decline in the start - up rate and production. From January to June, the national soda ash production was 18.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. It is expected that the production from July to September will decline slightly but remain at a relatively high level, and may rebound in October, with an annual supply increase of about 1.1% [2]. - "Anti - involution" has become a policy and market focus. As the "anti - involution" measures in the photovoltaic industry are implemented, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has declined, restricting the demand for heavy soda ash. Considering the poor profitability of the glass industry, the production of float and photovoltaic glass may continue to decline in the second half of the year, dragging down the demand for heavy soda ash. The total demand for soda ash is expected to have a negative growth of 0.6% this year, mainly due to a year - on - year decrease of 8.7% in heavy soda ash demand, while light soda ash demand will increase by 7.3% [3][7]. - In the first half of this year, with the decline in domestic soda ash prices, exports were strong. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 840,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 118.5%. It is expected that exports will remain high in the second half of 2025, with a net export of 2.11 million tons for the whole year, a significant year - on - year increase [7]. - In the first half of this year, the over - capacity problem of soda ash was more obvious, and inventories at all levels increased. The inventory of soda ash production enterprises was at a historical high. Based on the supply - demand balance analysis, the supply - demand pattern will remain loose. After the summer maintenance, the inventory is expected to continue to rise, and the total inventory may reach 3.62 million tons by the end of the year, much higher than in previous years [7]. - The recommended strategy is to sell hedging at high prices [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Recent Soda Ash Price and Profit Situation - In early 2025, soda ash futures and spot prices rebounded slightly with commodities. Then, due to increased production capacity, decreased float and photovoltaic glass production, and lower coal prices, the price of soda ash futures contract 09 dropped from 1,640 yuan/ton to 1,147 yuan/ton, a decline of nearly 30%, and the mainstream average price of national heavy soda ash dropped from 1,600 yuan/ton to 1,300 yuan/ton, a decline of 19% [16]. - Recently, under the "anti - involution" policy, the price of photovoltaic silicon materials increased significantly, and the soda ash futures price rebounded from 1,147 yuan/ton to 1,244 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.5%, but the spot price remained stable and weak [16]. - Since 2024, the profit of the soda ash industry has declined significantly. Recently, the profits of the co - production method and the ammonia - soda method have both been in the negative, with losses of - 114 yuan/ton and - 134 yuan/ton respectively [21]. 2. Limited Impact of Summer Maintenance, High - level Soda Ash Supply - In the first half of 2025, although 2.4 million tons of new soda ash production capacity was added, due to poor profitability, some enterprises carried out early maintenance in February and May, resulting in a decline in the start - up rate and production. From January to June, the national soda ash production was 18.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, including a 4.0% year - on - year decrease in heavy soda ash production and a 5% year - on - year increase in light soda ash production [26]. - July is the traditional high - temperature maintenance season for soda ash enterprises. Due to the exothermic reaction of soda ash production, high - temperature, and humid weather, enterprises usually conduct maintenance. It is expected that the scale of summer maintenance this year may be slightly smaller than in previous years, but if prices continue to fall, more enterprises may carry out centralized maintenance [33][37]. - Considering the impact of summer maintenance, the production from July to September will decline slightly but remain above 3.1 million tons on average, and is expected to be around 3.2 million tons in October, increasing the supply surplus. The annual supply is expected to increase by about 1.1%, or 400,000 tons [41]. 3. Negative Impact of Photovoltaic Supply - side on Consumption, Soda Ash Demand May Continue to Decline - "Anti - involution" has become a policy and market focus. The "anti - involution" work in key industries such as automobiles, steel, and photovoltaics has made positive progress. For example, domestic top ten photovoltaic glass manufacturers plan to cut production by 30% starting from July [43][45]. - From January to June 2025, the total daily melting volume of float and photovoltaic glass was 253,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%, and the corresponding consumption of heavy soda ash decreased by 11% year - on - year [47]. - Recently, the glass market has improved slightly, but the photovoltaic industry is still weak. The supply of photovoltaic glass has decreased due to kiln production cuts and cold repairs, the demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the inventory has increased. The price of Wuhu Xinyi photovoltaic glass has dropped to 18.5 yuan/square meter [51]. - In the first half of the year, the demand for light soda ash was relatively strong, with a year - on - year increase of 7.7% in apparent demand from January to June. Different downstream industries have different operating conditions, such as the 80% start - up rate of sodium silicate manufacturers and the 88.6% start - up rate of the monosodium glutamate industry [53]. - For the second half of the year, considering the poor profitability of float and photovoltaic glass enterprises, the number of new and restarted production lines is expected to be limited, and the probability of cold - repair production lines is higher, which may further reduce the demand for heavy soda ash [54]. 4. Decline in Domestic Soda Ash Price, High - level Soda Ash Exports - In the first half of 2025, with the decline in domestic soda ash prices, exports were strong. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 840,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 118.5%. It is expected that exports will remain high in the second half of the year, with a net export of 2.11 million tons for the whole year, a significant year - on - year increase [63]. 5. Soda Ash Total Inventory Expected to Continue Rising in the Second Half of the Year - In the first half of 2025, the over - capacity problem of soda ash was more obvious, and inventories at all levels increased. The inventory of soda ash production enterprises was at a historical high. The latest inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.863 million tons, the inventory of sample glass factories was equivalent to 23.4 days of use, and the inventory of soda ash delivery warehouses was 238,000 tons. The total inventory of the three links reached 2.805 million tons, at an absolute high level compared with the same period [66]. - Based on the supply - demand balance analysis, the supply - demand pattern of soda ash will remain loose. After the summer maintenance, the inventory is expected to continue to rise, and may reach 3.62 million tons by the end of the year, much higher than in previous years [69]. 6. Summary - Price and profit: Similar to the previous analysis, the price of soda ash futures dropped significantly, and the spot price dropped relatively less. Recently, the futures price rebounded under the "anti - involution" policy, but the spot price remained stable and weak [72]. - Supply: In the first half of the year, new production capacity was added, but early maintenance led to a decline in production. Summer maintenance may have a limited impact, and the annual supply is expected to increase by about 1.1% [72]. - Demand: "Anti - involution" has affected the demand for heavy soda ash. Considering the poor profitability of the glass industry, the demand for heavy soda ash may continue to decline in the second half of the year. The total demand for soda ash is expected to have a negative growth of 0.6% this year, mainly due to the decline in heavy soda ash demand [73]. - Net export: Exports were strong in the first half of the year and are expected to remain high in the second half, with a net export of 2.11 million tons for the whole year [74]. - Inventory: The over - capacity problem was obvious in the first half of the year, and inventories at all levels increased. The inventory is expected to continue to rise in the second half of the year, and may reach 3.62 million tons by the end of the year [74]. - Strategy: Sell hedging at high prices [9].
专题报告：光伏供给侧制约下，纯碱反弹高度有限
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-14 23:39