光大证券晨会速递-20250715

Industry Research - The core viewpoint of the real estate market indicates a slight decline in new home transactions across 20 cities, with a total of 430,000 units sold, representing a decrease of 3.0%. Notably, Beijing saw a drop of 8% to 22,000 units, while Shanghai experienced a 4% increase to 54,000 units, and Shenzhen rose by 8% to 17,000 units. In the second-hand housing market, transactions increased by 13.7% to 422,000 units, with Beijing up 15% to 93,000 units, Shanghai up 21% to 138,000 units, and Shenzhen up 32% to 38,000 units [2]. Company Research - The report on Zijin Mining (601899.SH) forecasts a record high net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 23.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of about 54%. This growth is attributed to rising copper and gold prices. Projections for net profit in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 47.06 billion, 54.65 billion, and 62.21 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 47%, 16%, and 14%. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 11, 9, and 8 times for the respective years, maintaining an "overweight" rating [3]. - For China National Materials (600970.SH), the report highlights successful overseas expansion, with new contracts signed in the first half of 2025 showing significant growth. The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a current dividend yield approaching 5%, making it competitive compared to banks. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to 2027 is 3.26 billion, 3.40 billion, and 3.52 billion yuan, respectively, sustaining a "buy" rating [4]. - The analysis of Aohua Endoscopy (688212.SH) anticipates that the AQ-400 series will meet clinical needs and drive revenue growth post-certification. The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted down to 6.2 million and 9.5 million yuan, respectively, while a new estimate for 2027 is set at 13.6 million yuan. The current price corresponds to PE ratios of 101, 66, and 46 times, with the company maintaining a strong market position, thus retaining an "overweight" rating [5].