Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and casting aluminum alloy, and gives corresponding price trend forecasts and operation suggestions [2][4]. Summary by Metal Category Copper - Price Movement: The LME copper price fell 0.2% to $9643 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78020 yuan per ton. The US copper tariff will take effect on August 1, and if strictly enforced, the price difference between US copper and LME and SHFE copper is expected to widen, and the prices of LME and SHFE copper will be under pressure [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 900 tons to 109625 tons, and the domestic social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons (SMM caliber). The SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 1100 to 34000 tons [2]. - Supply - Demand and Price Forecast: The copper raw material shortage situation remains, but the marginal impact is weakening. After the US copper tariff is implemented, the supply outside the US is expected to increase. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate weakly. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is 77500 - 78600 yuan per ton, and the LME copper 3M is 9500 - 9720 dollars per ton [2]. Aluminum - Price Movement: The LME aluminum price fell 0.21% to $2596 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20405 yuan per ton [4]. - Inventory: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 35000 tons to 501000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 5000 tons to 406000 tons [4]. - Supply - Demand and Price Forecast: The aluminum ingot inventory remains low, but the supply is expected to increase. Considering the off - season and reduced exports, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 20200 - 20550 yuan per ton, and the LME aluminum 3M is 2560 - 2620 dollars per ton [4]. Lead - Price Movement: The SHFE lead index rose 0.03% to 17096 yuan per ton, and the LME lead 3S fell by $10.5 to $2017 per ton [5]. - Inventory: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 55100 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 249400 tons [5]. - Supply - Demand and Price Forecast: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the downstream demand is gradually improving. The LME lead price is strong, but the increase of SHFE lead is expected to be limited [5]. Zinc - Price Movement: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.55% to 22231 yuan per ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell by $38 to $2739 per ton [7]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 93100 tons [7]. - Supply - Demand and Price Forecast: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the zinc price is bearish. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate. The SHFE zinc main contract is expected to move between 22231 yuan per ton [7]. Tin - Price Movement: The tin price fluctuated. The supply is at a low level, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply and demand are balanced [9][10]. - Inventory: The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9644 tons as of July 11, 2025 [10]. - Supply - Demand and Price Forecast: Due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, the tin price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic tin price is expected to operate between 250000 - 280000 yuan per ton, and the LME tin price between 31000 - 35000 dollars per ton [10]. Nickel - Price Movement: The nickel price fell under pressure. The contradiction in the nickel market is concentrated in the ferro - nickel production line [11]. - Inventory: No significant inventory - related information for analysis is provided in the text [11]. - Supply - Demand and Price Forecast: The ferro - nickel price is expected to continue to fall, and the nickel price has a certain short - selling value. The operating range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan per ton, and the LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16000 dollars per ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 1.11%, and the LC2509 contract rose 3.42% [13]. - Inventory: No significant inventory - related information for analysis is provided in the text [13]. - Supply - Demand and Price Forecast: The supply is expected to remain high, and the short - term price is affected by news and demand expectations. The operating range of the LC2509 contract is 65200 - 67700 yuan per ton [13]. Alumina - Price Movement: The alumina index rose 0.77% to 3124 yuan per ton [15]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts increased by 4800 tons to 23400 tons [16]. - Supply - Demand and Price Forecast: The alumina capacity is in excess. The price is expected to be driven up in the short - term but will be anchored by the cost in the long - term. It is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2850 - 3300 yuan per ton [16]. Stainless Steel - Price Movement: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12715 yuan per ton, up 0.04% [18]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased to 1167500 tons, a 0.93% increase [18]. - Supply - Demand and Price Forecast: The supply exceeds demand in the short - term, and the spot market is expected to remain weak [18]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Price Movement: The AD2511 contract fell 0.63% to 19805 yuan per ton [20]. - Inventory: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 1400 tons to 27000 tons [20]. - Supply - Demand and Price Forecast: The downstream is in the off - season, and the price is expected to face resistance [20].
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250715
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-15 00:46