Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial markets, including the decline of international oil, precious metals, and base metals prices; the positive growth of China's foreign trade in the first half of the year; and the latest policies and data in the fields of finance, industry, and overseas markets. It also provides forecasts and analyses of various industries, such as the potential increase in palm oil imports in India and the expected decline in U.S. soybean crushing volume. [2][3][4][8] Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International oil prices generally fell, with the U.S. oil main contract down 2.37% at $66.83 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.82% at $69.08 per barrel [2] - International precious metal futures generally closed down, with COMEX gold down 0.35% at $3352.10 per ounce and COMEX silver down 1.40% at $38.41 per ounce [3] - London base metals closed down across the board, with LME lead down 0.82% at $2005.00 per ton, LME nickel down 0.88% at $15065.00 per ton, and LME copper down 0.18% at $9643.50 per ton [4] - U.S. agricultural products showed mixed performance, with soybeans down 0.35%, corn up 1.14%, soybean oil up 0.73%, soybean meal down 1.00%, and wheat down 0.55% [5] - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed results, with 20 - rubber and soda ash up over 1%, and styrene (EB) and fuel oil down over 1% [5] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - In the first half of the year, China's goods trade imports and exports were 21.79 trillion yuan, up 2.9% year - on - year, with exports reaching 13 trillion yuan and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan. In June, imports, exports, and imports all achieved positive year - on - year growth [8] - As of the end of June, M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, up 8.3% year - on - year; M1 balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year - on - year; and the social financing scale stock was 430.22 trillion yuan, up 8.9% year - on - year [8] - On July 15, the central bank will conduct a 1.4 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of July 14, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased by 24.22% to 138,500 tons [18] - In Anhui, a 1200 - ton/day kiln was cold - repaired, and the planned cold - repair capacity in July is 1400 tons/day [18] - In June, China imported 49.89 million tons of crude oil, up 7.1% month - on - month, and the refining capacity affected by maintenance decreased by 22.2 million tons compared with May [18] Metal Futures - The Wa State Industrial and Mineral Administration held a meeting on the resumption of production in the Manxiang mining area [21] - Indonesia will shorten the validity period of mining quotas from three years to one year starting in 2026 [21] - The asset inventory of the Guinea Alumina Corporation has been launched, and its operations have been suspended [21] Black - Series Futures - Hebei Iron and Steel Group set the July silicon - manganese price at 5850 yuan/ton, with a purchase volume of 14,600 tons [23] - The total global iron ore shipments decreased by 78,000 tons, while the shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by 938,000 tons [24] - In early July, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities increased by 0.8% month - on - month [25] Agricultural Futures - U.S. soybean crushing volume in June is expected to drop to a four - month low, with an expected crush of 185.195 million bushels [28] - India's palm oil imports in June increased by 60% month - on - month, while soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% [30] - As of July 11, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key areas increased by 5.21% week - on - week [30] Financial Market Financial - A - shares showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.45%. The market turnover was 1.48 trillion yuan [34] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.26%, and the south - bound capital had a net purchase of HK$8.243 billion [34] - Many A - share listed securities firms expect their net profits in the first half of the year to increase by more than 50% year - on - year [35] Industry - The China National Coal Association emphasized the importance of implementing the medium - and long - term contract system for thermal coal [36] - In the first half of the year, 5.622 million new energy vehicles were registered in China, a year - on - year increase of 27.86% [38] - Some local governments in China introduced policies to support the housing purchases of multi - child families [38] Overseas - Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Russia and other countries, and the EU and Brazil may take counter - measures [42][43] - The U.S. Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged in July, and the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan may adjust their monetary policies [42][43][45] - India's CPI in June slowed to 2.1% year - on - year, providing more room for the central bank to ease monetary policy [46] International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks rose slightly, with the Dow up 0.2%, the S&P 500 up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq up 0.27% [47] - European stocks showed mixed results, with the German DAX down 0.39%, the French CAC40 down 0.27%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.64% [47] Commodities - International oil prices fell, and Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent crude prices in the second half of 2025 to $66 per barrel [48] - International precious metal futures closed down, affected by trade frictions and Fed policy uncertainty [49] - London base metals closed down, pressured by the decline in the expectation of Fed rate cuts and weak demand [49] Bonds - Domestic bond yields mostly rose slightly, and Treasury bond futures closed down [51] - U.S. bond yields rose across the board, driven by inflation expectations and tariff threats [51] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose 17 points, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.24% [52] - Non - U.S. currencies mostly fell, affected by global trade uncertainties [52] Upcoming Events - At 09:20, 69 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 100 billion yuan of MLF will expire [54] - At 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities [54] - At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance in the first half of 2025 [54]
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250715
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-07-15 00:46