中原证券晨会聚焦-20250715

Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,519.65 with a gain of 0.27% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,684.52 with a slight decline of 0.11% [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2,022.77, down by 0.47% [2] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones closed at 30,772.79, down by 0.67% [2] - The S&P 500 closed at 3,801.78, down by 0.45% [2] - The Nasdaq closed at 11,247.58, down by 0.15% [2] Economic Indicators - In the first half of the year, China's goods trade import and export totaled 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [3][9] - As of the end of June, the social financing scale stock increased by 8.9% year-on-year, while M2 increased by 8.3% [3][9] - By the end of 2024, approximately 1.327 billion people were covered by basic medical insurance in China, maintaining a coverage rate of over 95% [3][9] Industry Insights - The lithium battery sector index rose by 15.16% in June, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [14] - In June, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 1.329 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.69% [14] - The semiconductor industry showed strong performance, with a 6.01% increase in June, while global semiconductor sales continued to grow [15][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as agriculture, organic silicon, and polyester filament due to potential improvements in industry structure [19][21] - The communication industry is rated as "stronger than the market," with a focus on light communication, telecom operators, and AI mobile phone sectors [25] - The solar energy sector is recommended for investment, particularly in polysilicon and solar glass, as the market enters a phase of clearing and capacity reduction [30][29]