五矿期货贵金属日报-20250715
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-15 01:09
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Fed officials' hawkish stance on interest rate cuts led to a short - term decline in precious metal prices, but the expectation of loose monetary policy due to the Fed's undermined independence persists. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on silver prices. Traders are advised to focus on the opportunity to go long on silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 759 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9020 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Market Price Performance - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.05% to 778.04 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.11% to 9167.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold declined 0.17% to 3353.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver decreased 0.65% to 38.49 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.43%, and the US dollar index was 98.15 [2]. 3.2 Market Participants' Views - Cleveland Fed President Hammack said the overall impact of tariffs on inflation is uncertain, so there is no urgent need for an interest rate cut. US President Trump hopes for a loose monetary policy and suggests the Fed should cut the interest rate below 1%. The CME interest rate observer shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both the September and December FOMC meetings [2]. 3.3 Key Data Comparison - Gold: The closing price of Au(T + D) was 777.46 yuan/gram, up 1.06% from the previous trading day; the closing price of London Gold was 3351.15 dollars/ounce, down 0.03%. The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF remained unchanged at 947.64 tons [4]. - Silver: The closing price of Ag(T + D) was 9172.00 yuan/kilogram, up 1.60% from the previous trading day; the closing price of London Silver was 39.00 dollars/ounce, up 3.99%. The holdings of SLV Silver ETF increased by 207.72 tons to 14966.24 tons, a 1.41% increase [4]. 3.4 Gold and Silver Key Data Summary - Gold: The closing price of COMEX Gold's active contract was 3352.10 dollars/ounce, down 0.54% from the previous day; trading volume decreased by 12.60% to 18.09 million lots; open interest increased by 1.25% to 44.31 million lots; inventory remained unchanged at 1143 tons [6]. - Silver: The closing price of COMEX Silver's active contract was 38.41 dollars/ounce, down 1.70% from the previous day; open interest decreased by 0.47% to 16.28 million lots; inventory increased by 0.34% to 15447 tons [6]. 3.5 Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between the price and volume of COMEX Gold and Silver, Shanghai Gold and Silver, and the relationship between precious metal prices and other factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc [11][16][27] 3.6 Near - and Far - Month Structure - There are charts showing the near - and far - month structure of COMEX Gold and Silver, London Gold and Silver, Shanghai Gold and Silver, and the price differences between different contracts [20][21][38] 3.7 Management Fund Net Long Positions - There are charts showing the relationship between the net long positions of COMEX Gold and Silver management funds and prices [41] 3.8 ETF Holdings - There are charts showing the total holdings of Gold and Silver ETFs [48] 3.9 Internal - External Price Differences - On July 14, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference for gold was 25.37 yuan/gram, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 5.43 yuan/gram; the SHFE - COMEX price difference for silver was 356.49 yuan/kilogram, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 1.55 dollars/ounce [49]